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Random Thoughts


Here comes the snow!

  • I say we give Phoebe and Zoë a coupla glocks and even the playing field.

  • The Nazz was up nearly 30 points yesterday and the OTC Bullish Percent still FELL by .10. In fact, it ticked closer to another move down to 54 (54.13 current). According to our friends at Dorsey Wright, this rally since January 24 has done nothing for four letter PnF demand.

  • Bully Pulpit!

  • Just some good ol' boys...

  • "I used to think, forget it, $40 oil is not sustainable," says Oppenheimer & Co. energy analyst Fadel Gheit, a 30-year industry veteran. "It has to come down from there. That's what I was taught. But things have changed. The center line for oil prices is clearly moving up." - Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2005

  • I told Boo to rethink his short-term posture if A) the internals markedly improve B) the piggies bring home the bacon or C) NDX 1560 is taken out.

  • Ze hamster made me do it!

  • Bonds are on their lows (-28 ticks), the dollar is last in show (-1%) and the metals are primed to go. Equities are sitting tight despite fugly internals and waning leadership. The question we must ask is if the "dollar lower--buy stocks!" knee jerk will manifest or if the combination of rude crude, lopsided optimism and overhead resistance will quell the swell.

  • S&P 1218 should offer the first support for Hoofy's heroes.

  • "The United States of America's public finances are a shambles and they are getting rapidly worse. The truth is that the United States faces a long-term deficit that will only increase as the baby boomers retire. The resulting fiscal imbalance will test the nation's spending and tax policies. Washington's recent difficulty in maintaining fiscal restraint has not helped matters. I don't like using words that are overly inflammatory. At the same time, I think it is critically important that the American people, as well as their elected representatives, get a better understanding of just how serious our situation is. The sooner we start fixing this, the better because right now the miracle of compounding is working against us. Debt on debt is not good. We have to first stop digging, and then figure out how we're going to fill the hole. The thing that is frustrating is that you can talk to people and point to things, but that's all you can do. You can lead them to water, but they have to drink. And they better start drinking fast -- and soon." - David Walker, Comptroller General (Chief Auditor) of the United States

  • "The Frank Layden piece reminded me of the one about the outcome of crossing an agnostic with a dyslexic: a person who spends their time wondering if there is a dog. Minyan Win"

  • To the spoil of Peak Oil.

  • Some of my sharper trading contacts tell me that the demand they've seen is of the "mo'mo'go'go" variety. While I won't name names (professional courtesy), a spate of large gorilla hedge funds are gunning for 52-week breakouts and piling into exposure. This style, which will 'work' as long as there is no motivated supply, speaks to the yen for yield in the marketplace. It's worth noting as we always wanna know which hands are holding the merchandise.

  • If you haven't been following Scotto Reamer's complexity analysis, you may wanna toss it on your radar. He offered a real-time experiment on Texas Instruments (TXN) into the mid-quarter update and, as my doctor likes to say, "there sure is alotta meat on those bones!"

  • The average U.S. 18-year-old has spent 11,000 hours in school and 18,000 hours watching TV.

  • Talk about an asset alligator!

  • Bloomberg points out that Italy's largest telecommunications operator, Telecom Italia SpA, sold $1.1 billion of 50-year bonds, the first European company to tap a surge in demand for debt maturing in half a century. The yield? 4.31%. You're gonna tell me that someone locking up a 4% yield 50-years out doesn't have a yen for yield?

  • Does SOX 440 matter? It's "a" level to monitor although Hoofy will argue that the reverse dandruff is in play above SOX 420 (Dean Wormer support).

  • Officials of the Pere Lachaise cemetery in Paris said they were forced to cordon off the statue of 19th-century journalist Victor Noir -- who was reputed to be quite a ladies' man -- because too many visitors were rubbing Noir's clothed crotch for good luck. (BBC News)

  • The dollar dandruff (below DXY 82) is in play. That bodes well for the metals should the Benjamins start to flake.

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