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Random Thoughts


Pledge pins? On my uniform?


Phi Fish and I, after a quick trip to our ol' stomping grounds, are back in the saddle and ready to rattle. As I've been sans ticks since Friday--and as we've got a rather important afternoon meld--I humbly offer these Random Thoughts:

  • The NDX dandruff is still front and center as the chips dip and money rotates into consumer non-durables (S's over N's).

  • The piggies are a focus as the BKX is now under previous resistance acne support (BKX 106) and they attempt to stay in Matador City .

  • Be careful for what you wish? Newmont Mining is testing big support at $50 while flashing oversold stochastics. As this level served as multiple resistance for years, the gold digger should hold this first probe. Minyan JD notes the "count" on the Newmont dandruff "works" to $46, which is also the 200-day moving average. I see it, young man, although I still think Hoofy puts up a fight in here.

  • NYSE internals are about as fugly as I can remember (3:1 negative). Unless they start putting on a brave face, Snapper will likely stay in his shell.

  • There aren't many things better than going back to your alma mata with your college roommate to lecture at the School of Management (my haunt) and Newhouse (Kevin's digs). Our brothers at Zeta Psi were equally enthused by our efforts, including this brief exchange with a young pledge: "What's my name?" "Sir, Tom Hamilton, Sir!" "TOM HAMILTON?!? Do you want to win a date with me pledge?!?" (sir no sir)

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag

    "Toddo, I know you sold a lot of your large YHOO position when it was added to the S&P. Will you be looking to short GOOG when it is added to the S&P 500 if you can define your risk and the risk/reward at that time looks attractive? Peace, Minyan Dennis"


    That was then and this is now, in terms of the relative field position (Yahoo! was uber-extended), the tape (it was a euphoric exhaustion) and my attendant risk profile (selling a winning long into demand is different than initiating a short position).

    I currently have no position in Google and have not mapped a strategy for the S&P inclusion. I've found that crowded situations such as this lose have little, if any, relative edge. I will, however, continue to monitor the name as it's a good proxy for the speculative psychology.

  • As Boo turns the screws on the XAU, Silver $10 (support) remains impressively underfoot.
  • The VXO has quietly edged 7% higher and is trying to recapture Bar Mitzvah status. Mazel...

  • "I am in the process of strengthening our portfolios by adding quality names, not just the stocks that I think are quality companies, but the stocks that are also perceived to be quality by the Street. If we go through some turbulent times, perception will matter a lot more than reality. Lucky for us, some quality names are showing on the bargain radar. Recently we picked up 3M (MMM), which is trading at 16 times 2006 earnings, has a strong balance sheet, great return on capital, yada, yada, yada. We are carefully eyeing Wal-Mart (WMT), Intel (INTC) and a long list of other perceived quality names." Vitaliy Katsenelson on today's Buzz (position in MMM).

  • Does anyone else find this disturbing?

  • Keep an eye on the CRB as we edge below the 200-day and once again test the multi-year trendline. The pffft! is occurring despite relative traction in the precious metals as crude (-2%), unleaded gas (-4%), sugar (-3.3%), heating oil (-3%) and coffee (-2%) all contribute to the decline. It's interesting to note the greenback traction as well, which fits into the "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" thesis we so often discuss.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know...
    • Does anyone care if Jessica Alba can act?
    • Is IBM gonna pin $80 during next Friday's expiration?
    • Will Intel pin $20?
    • Are mechanical influences holding the former up and the latter down?
    • Have you circled August 10-13 on your calendar for Minyans in the Mountains III?
    • Do you see the potential dandruff in the homies (if the HGX closes here)?
    • When is the last time that you laughed so hard that you couldn't catch your breath?
    • Do you see the internals getting worse?
    • But can the tape "break" with the piggies sticky?
    • Is that a pledge pin on your uniform?

  • I'm smack dab in the midst of a nutty stretch as I travel to seven cities in eight weeks (my timing is impeccable!). That streak continues this weekend although the bent is decidedly less "work oriented." I'll be enjoying the weekend with Minyan Brooks, who so generously gave of himself to help support the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education. If the purpose of the journey is the journey itself, it's only right that I hand deliver the guitar and circle some vibe time with an old school Minyan.

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position in mmm, ibm

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