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Lie Like a Rug!

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If you're not mandated to carry risk, why not flatten and sleep well this weekend?

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So if you wake up with the sunrise,
And all your dreams are still as new,
And happiness is what you need so bad,
Girl, the answer lies with you.


(Led Zeppelin)

So there we were, sitting in my office with Kimbily Dispigna and Slaino (from Bahstan)--my old Morgan cronies--and we're reminiscing about the good old days when this business was actually fun! It seems that every story you hear these days is related to lost money, lost jobs or lost faith. I've gotta tell ya, it's good to spend time with people who still have souls and represent the very best of Wall Street--even if they don't wash their hands!

The Minx has slinked down from S&P 830 and the aforementioned pre-weekend manicure is underway. While I can't tell you (with a high degree of confidence) how the day will end, it seems as if trading types are more concerned with missing the "Bin Laden rally" than they are with a downside spill. The flow I'm seeing reflects that fear of missing and that's been a dangerous signal in the past. I'm not saying it's wrong--I'm simply offering perspective to my fellow Minyans.

I keep asking myself if Intel's bedwetting is the beginning of a reversion of "N's over S's" trend that's been in place. If you recall, there was a time when the S&P and NDX were at virtually the same level. With the N's outpacing the S's by 160 handles, I'm wondering if I "go after" the N's when Boo comes knocking. Just another one of those random thoughts that flew by my eyes and I wanted to put it "out there."

In that vein, I would be remiss if I didn't share a thought as I watch the U.N participants debate. My greatest fear of an Iraqi invasion--and I know I'm not alone--is the potential for retaliatory measures on our home soil. Perhaps I'm too sensitive to the issue but I can't shake the feeling that if we go to war, the war will be taken to us. God knows that I hope I'm wrong, but as this is factoring into my risk management agenda, I wanted to share it with the readership.

On an entirely brighter note, we're less than two hours away from our two day respite! Use this time carefully and project, in your mind, how you'll react if the market is locked up OR down limit on Monday. Don't kid yourself, both could happen (although it's unlikely) and we must always allow for a margin of error when managing risk.

Fokker, by the way, just stood up (sans leather) and said "Toddo, I defy any Minyan to eat more White Castle sliders than me at the March Madness Minyanfest on the 23rd." That's a pretty bold statement, Florence--we've got some sizable Minyans out there. Still, it's officially a challenge and if you're up to it, please RSVP to Fokker@Minyanville.com.

Fare ye well.



No positions in stocks mentioned.
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