Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

News flash!


This is going to be a wild day no matter how you slice it. For those wondering about the corporate profit outlook, we heard that things are not so great from Intel (INTC) in their mid-quarter update after the close yesterday. Add to that clear indications of imminent military action from President Bush last night and you get a recipe for a weak opening. Ok, but that was yesterday - what do we have today? The all-important employment report, which showed a less than stellar economic landscape followed by the upcoming presentation on how Iraq hasn't done what was demanded but is beginning too. Frankly, I think Hans Blix took presentation lessons from Alan Greenspan.

In the vein of finding new and interesting ways to look at the same thing, I would like to take this opportunity to announce to the world that my good friend and new partner Brian Reynolds has decided to join the Kirlin team as Fixed Income and Economic Strategist. Brian was a big time Fixed Income fund manager in Boston and graduated from Harvard. It looks like I am going to have to learn some bigger words. Seriously, the readers are going see through me how Brian has the unique ability to make every class of investor (and trader) understand what is happening in the economy, and as a result the Fixed Income Market. And that has just an itsy bitsy impact on equities.

Let me pass along his thoughts on the employment report just released:

February payrolls fell 308,000, well below the consensus for a gain of 5,000. Even after accounting for an upward revision of 42,000 to the January data and the subtraction of called-up reservists from payrolls, it was a weak report. The weakness was spread across industries, and the index of aggregate hours worked, a measure of output, fell to a cyclical low. Bond traders responded to the weakness in the report, initially pushing the price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury up from a little more than an eighth of a point before the number to a gain of nearly a half-point immediately after it.

From a longer-run standpoint, employment remains sluggish, and this report raises new fears of further weakness. Employment fell throughout 2001, and has been flattish since then. If this were a normal recovery, employment would be well above 133 million. So, the economy remains well below par.

Clearly, it appears we are entering the part of the current decline that may line up the intermediate-term technical indicators for a more significant and sustainable rally similar to last July and October. Stay tuned, because I am watching for that like a hawk. The hawk is circling, but not ready to swoop. Have a great weekend.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Featured Videos