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Rumors

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It continues to amaze me that people trade off these rumors that come out. For example, there was a rumor in the early going that Osama Bin Laden was captured or about to be captured. People were buying stocks thinking the event would cause a spike. Think about that for a second. Do you think the guys and gals on the trading floors would get the first heads up if Osama were actually caught?

These are dangerous times because traders are looking for that one catalyst that is going to lead to a trend - either higher or lower. This can be dangerous because when one looks too hard, a small temporary catalyst can "seem" like a good reason to buy or sell, when it actually is not.

In this morning article, I outlined in the last chart, how the S&P 500 was very close to breaking down out of the consolidation pattern that it has recently been in. If the S&P 500 closes here, it would indeed break through the bottom of the pennant pattern suggesting the next leg (and possibly the final leg) down is upon us. Then again if this type stuff was consistently working over the course of the bear market it would be topic number one in the financial press - yet it is not.

The problem investors currently have in the market is that all the news has been so overanalyzed that only new news is likely to have a significant and sustainable effect.

Anybody want to predict what THAT may be, in this environment of economic and geo-political uncertainty? My point is that with all the current issues surrounding the global financial markets right now, why guess and react to the rumors. I agree with Toddo, who on a number of occasions has pointed out that the market may ultimately bottom when no one is worried about missing the upside - because they don't care.
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Daisy - don't comment on the rumor about us!
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