Toddo--take it easy on the kid...he's the sensitive type!
Same old song,
Just a drop of water in an endless sea
All we do, crumbles to the ground
Though we refuse to see
Fokker, Texas Stranger, just asked me what I thought of the market. Hey kid...M-I-N-Y-A-N-V-I-L-L-E....got it? I'm a much better writer than speaker (not saying much) and if you'd like to get a handle on what I'm thinking, point and click! What--you're busy? Cry me a river!
OK--I'll stop. I feel like the Great Santini when he's whacking his kid with the ball. "Ya gonna cry? Come on, lemme see a tear!"
Back to life, back in reality, we're tickling the bottom of that pennant again and the Minx isn't looking too sharp. Yes, it's early--yes, it's thin--yes, there are signs of life....but at the risk of beating a dead bull (no offense Hoofs), the breadth is absolutely abysmal. I slipped my second leg into my bear costume earlier based on this input and I wanted to once again stress it to my fellow Minyans.
NSM just released earnings and from what I can tell, there wasn't much to get excited about. The SOX has slipped somewhat in response but in case you're wondering, Intel matters more than Nat Semi. I'm schntizeling around my SMH puts (still) and with the tape acting as it is, my inclination is to stand pat. Naturally, that's subject to change but as of this post, that's what I'm thinkin'. Somebody else is as well--900,000 SMH just printed on a hit!
The bulls and turtles are toeing the line at S&P 820 as they know how important this flag pattern is. Again, there's a binary event in our midst so be careful not to defer to any one metric. S&P 817ish is important as well (February 13 closing low) so use a zone rather than a point if you're monitoring the technicals.
The intraday stochastics were overbought at S&P 830 and they're oversold now (S&P 820) so watch that if you're day trading. Do I think we break lower? If we don't lift soon (and the uber-short term oversold condition is alleviated by sideways action) and the breadth stays as fugly as it is, I think they're a decent chance they do. Am I pressing? No, cookie--just trading.
I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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