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Love Letters

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When love comes to town I'm gonna jump that train
When love comes to town I'm gonna catch that flame
Maybe I was wrong to ever let you down
But I did what I did before love came to town


(U2)

Outside of my office window, it appears as if the snow is actually falling up--which makes sense with all the vicious crosscurrents in play. It's not every day that we're on the brink of war and I suppose we shouldn't be shocked by the nuttiness in the market. Deep breaths, my friend, and lets take a walk.

There are a few things that continue to stand out. The bonds are getting hit and that's fueling speculation that there's an asset allocation in play. I haven't seen anything, mind you, but that's what's getting around the trading wires. Meanwhile, the S&P just filled the opening gap and, if (big if) we're gonna sell off, that was a necessary event.

Sector wise, software, retail, storage and pharma all act relatively dry. That said, the breadth stands out as an overt negative (so far) as losers are beating winners 8:5 in the NYSE and 3:2 in tech. As long as the internals are sluggish, I'm keeping my right hand up. As it stands, my stylistic approach continues to dictate trading from the short side and using rallies to nibble on some puts.

With that said, I continue to playing smaller than usual out of respect for the bipolar and binary ghost. Snoop Tone penned an awesome piece this morning and if you haven't read it, I highly recommend that you do. There's no shame in admitting it's hard and factoring it into your methodology--edges are few and far between in this environment and prudence, dear, is warranted.

Watch yesterday's highs--we just filled the gap and the intraday stochastics are a tad toppy. I continue to feel the onus is on the bulls to step up as the path of least resistance is (seemingly) lower. As always, just one Minyan's humble opinion. Finally, don't forget to RSVP to Fokker@Minyanville.com if you've got an interest in the March Madness NYC Minyanfest in NYC on the 23rd. Rumor has it that he's on a starvation diet ahead of his White Castle binge bet. Stay tuned!

I hope this finds you well.
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