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Random Thoughts

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The tape will be whippy, rallying and declining more than it otherwise might...

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  • Bark like a dog-a big dog! A quick sniff around this morning's globe found China off 1.6%, the Indian SENSEX 3.6% lower and Far East exchanges 3-4% in the red. If they're the dog and we're the tail, we need to continue to watch these pups.

  • S&P 1376 is the downside level to watch as we churn (not base) under S&P 1400. And again, S&P 1400 and BKX 116 are ursine backstops for those looking to define short-side risk.

  • I haven't wavered in my stated game plan to buy select securities (such as SunMicro and Goldenstar) on dips. I've got a slew of (once dormant) financial puts against my core longs, which I'm trading with trailing stops.

  • Ladies and Gentlemen, the new Minyanville spokesman!

  • Keep an eye on those saucy semis as they're trying to lead by example. IF (big if) the tape can turn, this sector should lead. SOX 454-458 seems like decent technical support.

  • Note Google (+$4) as it bucks the muck. Our aforementioned gap fillage won't give the official wink until it "fills" around the $430ish area (note the 200-day also resides at $432).

  • Ugly Stick! Out-of-the gate morning breadth was roughly 8:1 negative on the big board and 5:1 nosty in tech. It's improved from those levels but internals are far from an upside wink. As I pound on my keyboard, we're still seeing two red for each big board stock ahead and close to 4:1 negative readings in tech.

  • That breadth--and the dollar--suggests that Boo has some unfinished downside business today. That's subject to change, of course, but tea leaves are real-time and they're not supportive of a rally.

  • Of course, there will invariably be a rally at some point and from some level. The question you've gotta ask yourself is whether you wanna buy--or sell--into it.

  • Watch Bear (BSC), Wells (WFC) and Citi (C) as they're trying to stand up and step out. A number of brokers report next week and all eyes will be on them for signs of clarity on leveraged risk. And yes, as go the financials, so goes the tape.

  • Heads up, my brethren, Minyan March Madness is right around the corner!

  • Remember that size straddle buyer last week? I'm hearing that there is alotta negative gamma in the system and dealers may be a bit more reactive than usual. What does that mean? The tape will be whippy, rallying and declining more than it otherwise might (see the 8% oh-by-the-way pop in the VXO).

  • I still think this guy would make a fantastic Minyanville spokesman.

  • Finally, and speaking of tries and fries, I'm officially on the weight loss train after my own personal "denial, migration, panic" tri-fecta scales into action. A snapshot of my current weighting arrives at a lofty 226 lbs. (no, not a typo) and I'm shooting for a svelte 210 by April Fools. I'll get there, particularly now that I've put it out there.

  • Take a deep breath, Minyans, it could be a lot worse. And for a close friend of mine that lost his stepmother this morning to ALS, it already is. Keep it in perspective and don't take today for granted. Tomorrow is promised to nobody.


R.P.

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Position in gss, sunw, financials
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