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Random Thoughts


The tape will be whippy, rallying and declining more than it otherwise might...

  • Bark like a dog-a big dog! A quick sniff around this morning's globe found China off 1.6%, the Indian SENSEX 3.6% lower and Far East exchanges 3-4% in the red. If they're the dog and we're the tail, we need to continue to watch these pups.

  • S&P 1376 is the downside level to watch as we churn (not base) under S&P 1400. And again, S&P 1400 and BKX 116 are ursine backstops for those looking to define short-side risk.

  • I haven't wavered in my stated game plan to buy select securities (such as SunMicro and Goldenstar) on dips. I've got a slew of (once dormant) financial puts against my core longs, which I'm trading with trailing stops.

  • Ladies and Gentlemen, the new Minyanville spokesman!

  • Keep an eye on those saucy semis as they're trying to lead by example. IF (big if) the tape can turn, this sector should lead. SOX 454-458 seems like decent technical support.

  • Note Google (+$4) as it bucks the muck. Our aforementioned gap fillage won't give the official wink until it "fills" around the $430ish area (note the 200-day also resides at $432).

  • Ugly Stick! Out-of-the gate morning breadth was roughly 8:1 negative on the big board and 5:1 nosty in tech. It's improved from those levels but internals are far from an upside wink. As I pound on my keyboard, we're still seeing two red for each big board stock ahead and close to 4:1 negative readings in tech.

  • That breadth--and the dollar--suggests that Boo has some unfinished downside business today. That's subject to change, of course, but tea leaves are real-time and they're not supportive of a rally.

  • Of course, there will invariably be a rally at some point and from some level. The question you've gotta ask yourself is whether you wanna buy--or sell--into it.

  • Watch Bear (BSC), Wells (WFC) and Citi (C) as they're trying to stand up and step out. A number of brokers report next week and all eyes will be on them for signs of clarity on leveraged risk. And yes, as go the financials, so goes the tape.

  • Heads up, my brethren, Minyan March Madness is right around the corner!

  • Remember that size straddle buyer last week? I'm hearing that there is alotta negative gamma in the system and dealers may be a bit more reactive than usual. What does that mean? The tape will be whippy, rallying and declining more than it otherwise might (see the 8% oh-by-the-way pop in the VXO).

  • I still think this guy would make a fantastic Minyanville spokesman.

  • Finally, and speaking of tries and fries, I'm officially on the weight loss train after my own personal "denial, migration, panic" tri-fecta scales into action. A snapshot of my current weighting arrives at a lofty 226 lbs. (no, not a typo) and I'm shooting for a svelte 210 by April Fools. I'll get there, particularly now that I've put it out there.

  • Take a deep breath, Minyans, it could be a lot worse. And for a close friend of mine that lost his stepmother this morning to ALS, it already is. Keep it in perspective and don't take today for granted. Tomorrow is promised to nobody.


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Position in gss, sunw, financials
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