By Todd Harrison Mar 05, 2004 9:12 am
On your nose!
Ain't nothin' goin' on
But the rent
You've got to have a J. O. B.
If you wanna be with me
Beeks hits the scene with the payroll data (or lack thereof) and, well, the much anticipated job growth just ain't there. Remember, we went from "it's a lagging indicator" to "it's a productivity paradigm" to "voters need jobs" to "uh oh, Spaghetti-o." There will surely be seasonal rationalization chatter but eventually, there will also need to be jobs. That is, at least, if Elmer's glue is to remains sticky.
Stag·fla·tion (stg-flshn) n. is sluggish economic growth coupled with a high rate of inflation and unemployment. There's nothing sluggish about growth you say? We've had record stimulus and incessant government spending. Take that out of the equation, my friends, and we're up to our eyes in muck. That may (or may not) matter for today but from a big picture standpoint, it's downright spooky.
As it stands, the asset class shuffle is in full effect. Bonds are up almost three full points, gold is $7 richer (at $400 initial resistance), the dollar is lower across the board and Europe is steadily slipping. Our stateside futures are lower as well although the ghost of Snapper's past is keeping a bid under the market. Could the tape still break out despite the road signs and hitch hikers? Yes, we've seen sneak attacks before--but the longer the breadth remains 2:1 negative (as I suspect it'll open), the less likely Terrapin Station becomes.
I just said to Lt. Col. Matthew Markinson that it's no shocker the PPI is MIA. Could you imagine the double whammy of higher costs (inflation) and less jobs? I continue to feel that there's a disconnect between reality and the level of equities. What remains to be seen is when the psychology bubble accepts that trouble. Timing is everything, Mon Frere, and as the Chinese proverb says, we live in interesting times.
Watch the financials (Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE)) and watch your clock. We have less than seven hours remaining until our requisite two day respite so settle down and suck it up. And, as my IM's light up with zest, I will remind you that emotion is the enemy when trading. Remain lucid and play to win--today's your day.
I'll be back.
position in fnm
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