More Random Thoughts!
By Todd Harrison Mar 04, 2005 3:02 pm
May peace be with you!
- We've noted our respect for the financials, the staunch breadth (bullish) and the tendency for tapes that are up all day tend to end that way. We've also eyed the non-confirmations, complacency (VXO 12) and four-letter funk (things that won't "matter" unless prices validate their existence). I'm not fighting this tape but I'm not riding it either. And while I opined that an intermediate-term window of opportunity existed for the bulls, I'm not so sure we've begun that fun. Maybe I'm over-thinking the situation but I get nervous when things seem too obvious.
- Hugo, Hugo, Hugo what I want!
- "All you have is your name and your word." -Ruby Peck.
- "I'm not a big Greenspan fan. ... I voted against him two times. I think he's one of the biggest political hacks we have in Washington," Senate minority leader Harry Reid on CNN's "Judy Woodruff's Inside Politics."
- Paul Kelvin Hardy, 40, was arrested in Martinsburg, WV after he broke into a couple's home, robbed them of $540, held them at gunpoint for more than hour - after which he noticed a piano in the house and ordered the husband to play while Hardy sang. After the singing wound down, Hardy suggested they order pizza and meanwhile began playing with his gun. Before the pizza could be ordered, he accidentally shot himself in the leg. When police arrived he expressed disappointment that they wouldn't be getting pizza. (Herald-Mai, Hagerstown, MD)
- Simmah Down! I'm still not diggin' the action in the Nazz.
- Football season can't start soon enough!
- "Today proves again that the stock market is basically just the bond market's idiot kid brother. I mean, if the S&P's run to a new high because the job number was an upside surprise, the bond market is telling you the number was almost exactly as expected. I think there are signs, though, that the stock market wants to price in some 'upside risk' for first-half GDP. (Transports, as you noted, CYC etc.) For today anyway... More importantly, how many games out of second place do you figure the Orioles will finish this year?" Minyan Michael Santoli
- The Crude reality.
- "I'm watching the Internet HOLDRS (AMEX: HHH) closely here. Assets in the Rydex Internet fund have dropped to their lowest level since August 15, 2003. These assets have served as an excellent guide to trader sentiment over the past couple of years. 1) Since the beginning of 2003, whenever assets reached $40 million or more, HHH showed an average 30-day return of -10.1% with precisely 0% of occurrences being positive. 2) When assets fell under $10 million (they are under $8 million now), HHH showed an average 30-day return of +14.6% with all 92 days showing a positive return. That's impressive, but there is a major caveat here...if the sector is rolling over into a prolonged bear phase, these assets will be low and stay low, and HHH will continue to drop lower. But if you are looking for an entry into the space, the ideal time to do so is when all optimism has been sucked from the sector." Jason Goepfert on today's Buzz
- And you thought that you were having a bad day?
- The mental migration of sell-side research.
- "We just bought IBM (IBM) out of the money calls at a 12% volatility. This is dirt cheap. Who is selling options this cheap? I have written in our tutorials about over-writing and buy-writing. There are funds dedicated to this activity. With everyone starving for return we are seeing these types of funds stretch, selling calls cheaper and cheaper, ignoring the risks for returns. Now my contacts tell me there is a new push in "mutual fund land". Consultants and some very large funds are marketing a new type of investment strategy: buy-writes. This under the guise of creating "sector" buy-write funds, a new product is born. A product that dominated the landscape in the 1980's, that is until the crash. A product just in time to sell cheap calls ever cheaper. A product designed for just what investors want to hear right now: reasonable returns. What the investor won't hear is just how much risk they are taking to get that return. But isn't that just how Wall-Street works?" John Succo on today's Buzz.
- Maybe she shoulda just stepped in it?
- A judge in Breda, Netherlands, officially ruled that a 46-year-old bank robber, who stole money worth the equivalent of U.S.$8,400, could only be charged with a crime worth about U.S.$6,100 because the court had to let the man offset the equivalent of U.S.$2,300 that he paid for his gun -- as a legitimate business expense. (Daily Telegraph)
- This was a massively important week for Minyanville Publishing & Multimedia. After 18 years of ground work, Kevin Wassong joined the company as president and will run the day-to-day operations. Minyans will see the fruits of our labor in the weeks, months and years ahead. In addition to new content on deck, we'll also auction the all-star guitar and host the 2nd annual Minyans in the Mountains financial retreat. It's "all good," to quote Snoop Dogg, and I can honestly say that I've never been more excited for anything in my life.
- Fare ye well into the bell and have a peaceful, easy weekend.
position in ibm
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