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Random Thoughts!


Happy Friday!


  • With certain teletubbies constantly pontificating how bullish they are on America, it's easy to see why some folks confuse Hoofy with the American flag. The truth is that they have nothing to do with one another and while we all love our country, we must also accept that there are significant problems that we must overcome.

  • Have you noticed the closing prices for the e-mini S&P futures for the last 3 days? 1210.00, 1209.50 and 1210.00. No wonder Sammy is smiling!

  • What did I mean when I wondered "when will input prices (CRB) crunch profit margins?" Glad you asked! Morgan Stanley is out with a call this morning cutting Q1 EPS estimates for Alcoa (AA) (from $0.43 to $0.36 and for '05 from $1.95 to $1.76). Why? They cited higher costs in caustic soda, powder and resin. With input prices (the CRB index is a proxy) jammin' higher and minimal "pass through" to the consumer (as measured by the CPI), corporate America will have alotta 'splaining to do!

  • There sure seem to be alotta real estate flippers out there. Anecdotal, I know, but that's what they said about day traders too.

  • There is a huge difference between a job and a business.

  • Yesterday's session was a lesson in the pitfalls of pressing and guessing. If you chased the breakout in the morning or pressed the slippage midday (or both), you're likely licking wounds on an otherwise "nothing" day. It's not a mistake if you learn from it, Minyans, so don't despair. You'll have plenty of opportunities to exercise your newfound knowledge in the sessions ahead.

  • And I thought our lingo was tough to understand?!?

  • A few sell-side firms upped their energy "postures" this morning, which may seem odd considering that the XOI (Amex Oil Index) is up 25% and the OSX (Oil Service Index) is up 20% in the last two months. I will again point to the importance of the time horizon as the "non-linear" arbiter of fate. While this patch is clearly extended (and will suffer from sharp pullbacks), I still believe that we're in the early innings of the secular energy bull.

  • Why do I have the image of Zoë wearing a biker's helmet, dark shades and a long scarf?

  • Just in case the input/output thing hasn't crystallized: "Arcelor SA, one of the world's largest steelmakers, caved in to a big price increase from a major supplier of iron ore, in a move likely to put further upward pressure on steel prices. Arcelor, which 10 days ago said that a 71.5% price increase agreed to by Japanese steelmakers shouldn't be a benchmark for the industry, accepted the same price rise proposed by Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce SA, or CVRD, the world's largest producer of iron ore, in key iron-ore products beginning April 1." - Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2005

  • S&P 1213 is an important level on a closing basis. S&P 1200-1218 is the important range on an intraday basis.

  • The difference between success and failure, in many cases, is tenacity. You gotta want it!

  • "The brilliant prose style is one of the (many) great pleasures of Minyanville. It manages the near-impossible task of precisely describing complex, ambiguous situations, while still conveying the underlying (big picture) absurdity of it all. My problem with the language is that I find it difficult to discuss the market without using Minyan-speak, which sometimes makes my non-Minyan friends think I've taken leave of my senses." Minyan RS

  • I would assume that, much like shoes, $14,000 will buy a pair?

  • Keep half an eye on metal support (gold $428 and silver $7) as we figure out the asset class dance.

  • I'm gonna jump and juggle as we ready for Beek's freak at 8:30 am. Good luck today, Minyans, and let's leave it on the field so we can enjoy the requisite two-day respite that is less than eight hours away!

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