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Chaos Theory

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May peace be with you!

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Total chaos -- no mass confusion
Rhymes so hypnotizing known to cause an illusion
Like a magician who draws a rabbit out a hat, son
I'm drawin' more, like a 44-magnum


(EPMD)


The afternoon currents are on a collision and it's time for the critters to make a decision. No, I'm not referring to the difficult choice of old school verse--KRS One, NWA, DMC and LL were all in the running--I'm talking 'bout our risk management into two uber-important overnight events. Intel (INTC:NASD) mid-quarter update? Beeks payroll droll? Think hard before thy bell tolls 'cause you're gonna live with that risk win, lose or draw.

There are clearly two schools of thought here as we dance around major technical inflections. It's all about the S&P, you say? Pish pish. The cyclicals, financials, Russell 2000, brokers, banks, biotechs, drillers are all a kitten's whisker away from acne, the NDX is tickling the down trend (and pennant top) and the semis continue to test, retest and re-re-test multiple bottoms. It's....well, it's alotta fodder to digest, particularly into two massive events.

What do I think? We sensed earlier that Snapper was creepin' while ya sleepin' (as the Nazz breadth improved) and true dat, he is trying to chase the bears and hairs away (I think his upside is capped for the rest of the session). Regardless, you can take today's price action and wipe your ears with it as the A.D.D. trading community will have fresh, albeit brief, focus tomorrow.

I see (and feel) what you do--they act like they wanna just bust out and put the great debate behind us. I will remind you, however, of two simple facts--a slew of negative divergences about and the sentiment/complacency/bravado makes trap doors all the more likely. That doesn't mean you can't play long (or short), it just means you must respect both sides of every trade.

I'm gonna jump, juggle, tickle, flick and wiggle into the closing bell (the girl scout cookies arrived today) so lemme hop. The journey continues (in more ways than one) so let's take it in stride and strap in for the ride. I'm not sure there are many shorts left--and I'm not sure I blame 'em--but if there wasn't risk, it would be called winning (not trading). Just choose your steps wisely, Minyans, and don't look back--that's wasted energy.

Good luck into the closing bell, Mon Frere, and hit 'em hard.


R.P.

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