Forward look into the March Expiration
The month of March has the potential to mark important turns in the markets. We can simply cite the March 2000 high and the March 2003 low as evidence for that statement. One of the reasons may be attributed to the expiration of the March SP futures contract. I was curious to see if there was any bias leading up to the expiration and then if there was a shift afterward. In fact, there was.
The March contract expires on the open of the third Friday of March. I looked at the SP futures performance from the close of February leading up to the open on expiration Friday and then compared that to the performance from the open on expiration Friday to the close of March. The results were bullish coming into expiry (86% resulted in gains) and bearish after expiry (67% closing lower). As with any statistic I provide, past performance is certainly no guarantee of future results. Click here to view the detailed output.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter