Tipsy at Tipitina's
You're being udderly rude, Boo!
My grandma and your grandma
Were sitting by the fire.
My grandma told your grandma
I'm gonna set those longs on fire.
Alright--this is nuts. Boo's walking around with beads on his neck, two craws in his paws and singing Aiko at the top of his lungs! To add insult (and a potential lawsuit) to injury, he keeps poking his head out of the window and screaming "Show us your schvitz!" Dude! You've got to stop...it's not nice to make fun of other people's schvitz. Settle down and come sit by my side...I want to show you something.
Despite the dry action (thus far) in the semiconductors, the bulls can't seem to mount an offensive. The breadth is firmly negative, the cyclicals (led by GM) are weighing on the tape, Europe is fugly and the brokers seem to be under distribution (for sale). Further, the stochastics we've been monitoring (SOX, GE) are "extended" and that's lending to my desire to trade from the short side. It's early, mind you, and Snapper's still got a chance. However, based on the above mentioned reasoning, I'm not particularly thrilled with his prospects.
OK--style check. As we've been discussing, I starting nibbling on April puts a few days ago. With the VIX in the low thirties, I felt that defined risk downside paper would provide a decent vehicle with which to trade. If/when I sense a trading rally, I can always buy the underlying stock (on a ratio) and set up some gamma. I chose April paper, by the way, because I didn't want the front month gun to my head as we wade our way through this geopolitical mess. It's a matter of preference and that time, so you know, cost's money (premium).
With regard to the flow, Alice, it remains fairly quiet (thin) although I have picked up some "real money" selling. Still, the preponderance of the action is hedge fund hot potato and it remains whisper thin. While I have you (you don't have me yet, baby!), please be aware that the VIX stochastics are pixels away from a buy signal and, historically, that's been a negative signal for equities.
I've gotta hop and juggle some hats--it's one of those nutty days. Hope you're hittin' 'em hard, Mon Frere.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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