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Applied Complexity Analysis: OSX

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Thx Scotto!

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Note: the following analysis is formulated as an assimilation of Fibonacci, DeMark, Elliott Wave and other technical indicators. It is offered as education and not intended as advice in any way.



Once again we're updating our OSX models. Recall that our original bullish analysis on the OSX from June 2004 derived a time and price target of June 2005 and 170-185; at the time the OSX was between 90 and 100. Our models remain bullish but we are tweaking the time and price targets somewhat. We now have a time and price target for the OSX of 165-175 and sometime in July or August 2005. Our original view derived back in June 2004 was 170-185 and June 2005 +/- 1 month, so this new price / time merely reflects the additional data over the last several months.

In the short term, the peak registered on March 4th looks like a meaningful peak that could lead to a decline to the 121-128 area through the month of April and into early May. Once that corrective decline completes (we'll update as the price evolves over the next few weeks), we'll be positioned to derive a more granular target in the 165-175 and July / August time frame.

For now then, no clear path is presented based on our work. The short side doesn't appear worth the risk while the long side should wait for the current correction to unfold before adding to positions. So for now, patience is key to this index.

Please note: We are now able to offer our proprietary complexity model analysis on both stocks and/or stock indices as a daily service to institutional investors and a select number of individual investors. There are several different services available; each are provided on a monthly subscription basis and cover all U.S. indices and all U.S. stocks. Please contact us for details and rates.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

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