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Random Thoughts


That was the "easier" bounce. Now I've REALLY got my work cut out for me!


  • Keep an eye on the gaps created by today's lower opening.

  • That was an incredibly cheap shot by Oklahoma's Jozsef Zendrei on Carmello Anthony during the later stages of yesterday's game. And no call!

  • The breadth, the dollar and crude continue to weigh on equities.

  • Please don't confuse my earlier post with a more constructive "posture." I am simply "trading" a difficult tape and wanted to communicate what I was doing. If I planned to stick around on the long side, I'd dust off the bull costume. That's not to say Hoofy isn't the right critter -- it just means that I'm not heavily betting that way (or any way, for that matter).

  • I saw 8 Mile this weekend. Word up, dog!

  • The most important element of a trading strategy is identifying your time frame. For instance, I am rootin' tootin' bearish for a big picture (cycle) thesis but I'll occasionally try long side trades for a schnitzel.

  • So you know -- and in the interest of full disclosure -- I pieced out of the majority of those "tight tries" into this small (unimpressive) bounce. I'll continue to communicate these with you but, again, I must stress that NONE of these thoughts are intended as advice. I'm simply sharing my style with hopes it adds to yours.

  • I learned, first hand, the virtues of a honeydew marriage this weekend while visiting my brother. "Honey, do this... honey, do that..."

  • Do I still have that "nasty feeling" about the market? Yes. But that doesn't mean I'm pressing the short side. I'm looking for individual situations, scalping some marginal performance where I can and erring to the side of caution.

  • Expect the bulls and bears to step up for the Battle of S&P 850.

  • March Madness Maryland Minyanfest was a LOT of fun. Thank you to all the Maryland Minyans for schlepping through the rain to dive into those wings!

  • Have I booted Boo too soon? Probably. But I remember with great clarity how I felt on March expiration (six sessions ago) when the S&P closed at 896 and I was sweating in the fur. Fifty handles and 25,000 hair follicles later, I'm taking a fresh look and a deep breath. I'm not taking a victory lap. I've never done that and never will. I'm just remembering and balancing as we find our way.

  • Congrats to Neil Glassman on his move to Wachovia... all of your new clients will LOVE their Minyanville fleeces!

  • I introduced my five-year-old niece, Maia, to the CRAW! this weekend. I'm not sure if she'll ever be the same!

  • Can't decide if you're really bullish or really bearish? Don't trade.

  • 3-1-3, flunk the free world, 3-1-3, flunk the free world.

  • MO credit spreads are jumpin'. MO better blues?

  • Was March 21 the blow off top?

  • Triple bottoms don't traditionally hold and I don't expect the S&P triple bottom to hold either. When? If I could tell you that, cookie, I surely would.

  • The economic data continues to filter out all week and while the bulls have a "free pass" due to the war, I think it's important to monitor the aggregate state of the union. Thus far, it's not the most impressive of showings by Elmer & Co.

  • The breadth has improved to 2:1 negative.

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