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Where Wolf?


Good luck into the close!


The Wolf came in, I got my cards
We sat down for a game
I cut my deck to the Queen of Spades
But the cards were all the same

(Grateful Dead)

The afternoon drift continues to sift as the bears try and press while the bulls start to lift. The action thus far has been unremarkable and, truth be told, fairly edgeless. There's the good (financials, S&P breadth), the bad (semis) and the ugly (Yankee baseball). Now, with resistance above and Beeks ahead, we cast our eye towards the Wednesday hump (what hump?).

While we've got some creeping catalysts to digest--Circuit City (CC:NYSE) and Best Buy (BBY:NYSE) earnings will share tomorrow's spotlight with mortgage applications, factory orders and the Chicago PMI--a quiet riot may, in fact, be Hoofy's hero. There's low level chatter among the trading community that preannouncements loom as a function of input (commodity) prices and the absence of news could be perceived as a positive. Boo, of course, will argue that splendid numbers are already built into these levels but he's a bear--what else is he gonna say?

The big stinkin' elephant is, of course, Friday's payroll data as the bovine, ursine, Republicans and Dems all sharpen their pencils. Whenever something is this crowded, it becomes more difficult to trade purely on the merits. That, in a nutshell, is why the definition of a time horizon is so very important in the financial process. If you're an investor, the daily dance shouldn't dictate your stance. If you're an active Minyan, the big picture blues shouldn't alter your views. If you try to be all things to all critters, chances are that one of them will eat your lunch.

As discussed yesterday, I flipped out of alotta longs and established a small (defined risk) short position. My course of action will likely be a function of time and/or price but the underlying bid gives pause to Boo's cause. More likely than not, I'll look to flatten into Friday's orange crop report as flippin' coins isn't my idea of risk management. It's hard work making money and it only takes a momentary lapse of judgment to give it all back. Discipline, above all else, should remain the constant thread of any financial strategy.

I'm gonna hop and spend the rest of my afternoon on the Buzz. Before I go, I would like to take a moment and welcome the Shamrock Minyans to our humble little town. There's a lot to digest in the 'Ville and it'll likely take a while to settle into the new digs. I trust you'll find your way and, if you should need assistance, please don't hesitate to call. That is, after all, why we're here in the first place.

As always, I hope this finds you well.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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