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Where Wolf?

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Good luck into the close!

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The Wolf came in, I got my cards
We sat down for a game
I cut my deck to the Queen of Spades
But the cards were all the same


(Grateful Dead)


The afternoon drift continues to sift as the bears try and press while the bulls start to lift. The action thus far has been unremarkable and, truth be told, fairly edgeless. There's the good (financials, S&P breadth), the bad (semis) and the ugly (Yankee baseball). Now, with resistance above and Beeks ahead, we cast our eye towards the Wednesday hump (what hump?).

While we've got some creeping catalysts to digest--Circuit City (CC:NYSE) and Best Buy (BBY:NYSE) earnings will share tomorrow's spotlight with mortgage applications, factory orders and the Chicago PMI--a quiet riot may, in fact, be Hoofy's hero. There's low level chatter among the trading community that preannouncements loom as a function of input (commodity) prices and the absence of news could be perceived as a positive. Boo, of course, will argue that splendid numbers are already built into these levels but he's a bear--what else is he gonna say?

The big stinkin' elephant is, of course, Friday's payroll data as the bovine, ursine, Republicans and Dems all sharpen their pencils. Whenever something is this crowded, it becomes more difficult to trade purely on the merits. That, in a nutshell, is why the definition of a time horizon is so very important in the financial process. If you're an investor, the daily dance shouldn't dictate your stance. If you're an active Minyan, the big picture blues shouldn't alter your views. If you try to be all things to all critters, chances are that one of them will eat your lunch.

As discussed yesterday, I flipped out of alotta longs and established a small (defined risk) short position. My course of action will likely be a function of time and/or price but the underlying bid gives pause to Boo's cause. More likely than not, I'll look to flatten into Friday's orange crop report as flippin' coins isn't my idea of risk management. It's hard work making money and it only takes a momentary lapse of judgment to give it all back. Discipline, above all else, should remain the constant thread of any financial strategy.

I'm gonna hop and spend the rest of my afternoon on the Buzz. Before I go, I would like to take a moment and welcome the Shamrock Minyans to our humble little town. There's a lot to digest in the 'Ville and it'll likely take a while to settle into the new digs. I trust you'll find your way and, if you should need assistance, please don't hesitate to call. That is, after all, why we're here in the first place.

As always, I hope this finds you well.

R.P.
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