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Freaky Friday Random Thoughts

By

Oy!

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  • Google and the nets (not to be confused with Bennie and the jets) have been grinding green since the opening gun. Keep an eye on that Gaggle, though, as the leader of the pack doesn't feel very stable.

  • My freaky Friday eyes? They're flickering between my SunMicro-IBM pair (the former is quietly up 8% while Big Blue is bowling for theta), slippage in the homies (under HGX 260), poppage in yields and the pokage in the piggies (as they slip under BKX 106).

  • While I'm genuinely disturbed with what I saw last night, I understand that bad seasons define good fans. As such, I'll be in the Dome on Sunday (sans face paint) to support my Orange .

  • "A U.S. Steel/AKS Steel merger would be hard to get done, even at a $13 price on AKS without serious concessions from labor and unions. Without those, X would be paying nearly $800 per ton for AKS, an unheard of price. So the chances of the companies getting those concessions is only 50%. Arbs are very wary of this deal." John Succo

  • I've heard of Melba Toast but Alba Biscuits?

  • Bull-Bear debate Minyan Style!

    • Fur Balls! (Boo the Bear 10:53)



      As I watch towels toss across Red Dye--perhaps for good reason--I wanted to offer some random thoughts of my own:

      • Market internals, for the second day in a row, are laggin' the rally attempt.
      • Please keep an eye on yields as the fixed income flux continues.
      • The latest Investor's Intelligence survey shows more bears, not less. I'm not seeing that in my shrinking circles but I respect the incremental input.
      • If I Googled "textbook Head & Shoulders," I might find a three month chart of the NDX.
      • Yield curve inversions are a leading--not coincident--indicator of pain.
      • The stochastics on the S&P complex remain relatively overbought and somewhat twisty.

    • Denial isn't just a River in (Hoofy the Bull 11:05)



      I don't blame you for your random thoughts, Boo. If I were a bear, my thoughts would be somewhat scattered as well. But, since this is the forum you choose to use, I'll return the favor in kind.


      • I see the NDX dandruff and S&P resistance as well. But one metric does not a market make, as you know, and psychology is a powerful driver of stocks. If enough people subscribe to the fact that "if an Intel blow can't get 'em down, they must be going up," that psychology could self-fulfill.
      • Speaking of the S&P, keep an eye on the small flag pattern that has formed since late February. These patterns are typically "resolved" in the direction of the preceding trend which, in this case, is higher.
      • I'll again offer that there are a plethora of reasons for the tape to go lower. The fact that it hasn't speaks volumes to my Matador Crowd friends.
      • Was there anyone who didn't know that AMD was eating Intel's lunch?
      • See the brokers as they grind green and balance that against the BKX (which is currently below former support at BKX 106).


  • Pepe was perturbed yesterday and retorted with this nugget that I missed. Strong, baby, like an American Idol!

  • Sun Spots? I'm hearing (not confirmed) that Goldman is taking the (SunMicro) show on the road next week and some positive flava is paving the way.
  • I'm actually finding myself looking more and more at that Mines Mgmt. chart (MGN). This was one of my favorite silver plays and I scaled out of it around $8ish.

  • Lehman Brother's put out a quickie blurb this morning noting that they see the Fed Funds rate at 5.5% by late summer.

  • If your firm has an interest in sponsoring Minyans in the Mountains III (this is a good do), please let me know!

  • And just like that, we're readying to close another chapter in the annals of As the Minx Turns. While I'm an admitted hypocrite on the whole "work to live, don't live to work" thing, I'm gonna take a giant step towards rectifying that disconnect this weekend. I've got my brother Adam in from Baltimore (one night only) and some much needed Queen time tomorrow before heading up to the 'Cuse on Sunday. As I'll be giving a few 'town hall chats' on Monday (area Minyans are welcome), I'll be back in the critter saddle on Tuesday.

  • Fare ye well into the bell and have a great weekend!


    R.P.
Position in SUNW, IBM, financials

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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