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Morning Dew


A chip off the old block!

  • Intel, the Mother Chip of the semiconductor sector, cut their revenue forecast this morning citing weaker than expected demand and a "slight" market share loss (to AMD). We noted on yesterday's Buzz that "they" sure seemed to be "throwing a lot" at this name and now we know why. The question--for Intel and, by extension, the tape--is how the stock reacts. We know that good news in an extended tape is often sold and bad news in an oversold tape is often bought. With the stock 25% off its '06 high---and off a measly 40 cents on this news--I can't shake the thought that Snapper might be eyeing this issue.

  • General Motors isn't an automobile manufacturer. It's a bank that happens to sell low margin products with zero percent financing. Keep that in mind if the fixed income market heats up and rates start to ratchet higher.

  • Minyan Alex noted yesterday that the VXO 50-day has "crossed up" through the 200-day, implying that the trend of higher volatility may be just beginning. I know these signals aren't absolute (nothing is) but it fits with my view and I thought Minyans should see.

  • My buddy Doug Kass, who scribes smart vibes, points out that the short interest ratio in the XLF (financial spiders) is at the lowest ratio since the numbers have been gathered (2002). He also observes that the percentage of short interest (to the outstanding shares) gas dropped to 41.6% (the ratio peaked nine months ago at 134%), the lowest level in nearly three years.

  • Over the last few years, I've been all over the "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" theme as I believe one side of the equation must bow to the other. And while the greenback is off 25% since 2002, it's a dynamic that has flown largely under the mainstream radar. We spent some time discussing this in Ojai (along with the vibe that energy would hot potato the leadership baton with metals in the race for secular supremacy) but, true to Minxy form, the relationship between the two (CRB, as a proxy of liquidity, and the dollar) has been fluxy since. So why are you reading about this relationship more and more in my columns? Not because I'm A.D.D--although we are--but because I believe it's gonna heat up again with Boom Boom Bernanke in the hot seat.

  • The standout action yesterday? Silver stocks, and not because they're on my laundry list after peeling out of my "long-term" exposure. With white lightning up a finski (5%), Pan American (PAAS) was up a dime (10%) and Silver Standard Resources (SSRI) was up 9%. Neither stock took out their previous highs but, as metals (and energy) are my long-term secular winners---and CRB 320 fades into the rear-view--I'll openly wonder if I've out-traded myself once again.

  • You want another reason to circle August 10-13 on your Minyan calendar? Try this quote on for size: ""Minyans in the Mountains is a next generation enclave that provides the platform to engage, educate, empower, and unite passionate investors" Jeff "as good as it gets" Saut, Chief Market Strategist, Raymond James.

  • Clay, er, Pepe Depew, who scribes some insanely insightful vibes on the big picture and societal nuances, is also an uber-talented technician. Yesterday, while Buzzin' through his Thursday, he offered the following observations from his Point & Figure work: "Items of technical interest include: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) double bottom break at 63; Black & Decker (BDK) new buy signal; Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) double top at 58; Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) triple top break at 82; iShares S&P Latin American 40 Index (ILF) double top break at 147 (new high); 10-year Yield Index (TNX) double top break at 46.50."

  • Travel Zoo! There's no rest for the weary as I ready to hop a flight to the frozen tundra of Syracuse . After a chat and chew with Dean Stith on Sunday--a dinner I'm very much looking forward to--I'll be hosting a town hall chat at the Whitman School of Management on Monday at 4pm and co-hosting a presentation with President Fish at 7pm. From there, we've gotta few 'views to do and will hop on an early flight back to the 'Ville on Tuesday

  • Fare ye well Minyans and have a fantastic freaky Friday!

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