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Random Thoughts


Critters be shoppin?


  • The man may make the money but the money doesn't make the man.

  • A friend of mine, who is one of the more talented traders I know, told me that he wants to be long but can't find stocks that he's comfortable owning. I told him that we trade a market of stocks and not a stock market. If he doesn't like individual names, buying the tape was financial hypocrisy.

  • A good Minyan put together a snazzy Minyans in the Mountains calendar from last year. "March" is a picture of Snoop Tony Dwyer on the softball field wearing short shorts, a Minyan tee and shades. You're my brother, Snoop, but there's a reason why athletes wear long pants!

  • For those of you waiting for your ship to come in...

  • "A drop in the dollar is unlikely to trigger a financial crisis and is more likely to aid economic growth, a Fed study suggests. Greenspan echoed that view in congressional testimony." -WSJ, March 3rd 2005. Perhaps...but Elmer failed to mention that our basis of investment has steadily eroded. With the greenback down 31% in three years, a dollar put under your mattress in 2002 would be worth 69 cents today.

  • "I probably haven't mentioned margin account activity in 10 years. Basically, it was not deviating from the norm and now all of a sudden it has deviated from the norm." - Walter Deemer, Barrons, February 28, 2005, on the unusually heavy margin buying of late.

  • A new kind of cold war?

  • Aunt Fannie (FNM) and Uncle Franklin may have found another $2.8 billion in additional derivative losses. That brings the total tally to about $12 billion as regulators try to zero in on the moving target.

  • Repeat after me, "Input...output. Input...output."

  • If you missed Scotto's afternoon column yesterday, give it a gander. His complexity theory is the real deal and I truly believe that he's refining an entirely new method for financial modeling.

  • "I believe stocks will be flat to down [in 2005]. I expect it to be worse next year . . . When people tell me the price of oil is going to go down and stay down, I say to them, 'tell me where the oil is going to come from. What's going to drive down the price of oil and keep it down?' So far, no one has come up with an answer. We are now in a bull market in commodities because of supply and demand. Supply is down and declining, demand is growing." - All-Star guitar signee Jim Rogers at the Executives' Club of Chicago annual Economic Outlook Forum

  • A moment of silence for our dearly departed Bubba. Now everyone grab a lobster bib!

  • Hoofy will argue that the sideways slither is simply gathering steam before an assault at resistance above (S&P 1218). Boo would be quick to remind him that bottoms may be "points" but tops are "processes."

  • When that very same friend (mentioned above) asked me what I thought of the tape here, I told him that there is a window of upside opportunity but we must navigate the trap doors on the floor.

  • The metal markets are flattish this morning after successfully holding gold $428 and silver $7. I think that they're "a'ight" above those levels although the prospect of an (overdue) CRB retracement is in the back burner of my crowded keppe.

  • My stylistic approach has shifted over the last few years. While I still look for short-term niches to make money, I've put some "situations" away that I try not to touch. Rest assured that my long-term holdings are situated in the energy and metal arenas.

  • Expect to see lotsa posturing into the afternoon stretch as the critters get ready for breakfast with Beeks.

  • BKX 100. SOX 440.

  • Good luck today.

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