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Random Thoughts

By

I've heard of duck season and wabbit season...but preannouncment season?

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  • I've got a 10-day chart of the S&P up and there's a defined trendline in place starting at last Monday's lows. Since then, we've had a steady series of higher lows and higher highs (bullish). I'm watching this like a hawk for signs of a lower high or lower low.

  • Add the retailers to the list of groups not acting up to snuff.

  • Mea Culpa--it was Bugs who spoke lovingly of George (not Woody).

  • Tony tells me that SMH 23.25 is a big level on the 60 minute chart--it's where they "need" to hold (if they're going to).

  • Why don't cannibals eat clowns? Because they taste funny!

  • The banks continue to hang tough but the brokers are beginning to show signs of stress. Watch GS.

  • I haven't heard hide nor hair out of Morgan's conference yet.

  • The oldest rocks collected on the Moon during the Apollo program were approximately 4.4 billion years old.

  • Patience will provide opportunities if you're lucid and don't press.

  • Someone just bought 10,000 more QQQ March 27 calls and this continues the trend of size upsides being bought. I think that's bearish (contrarian).

  • China is the largest producer of tomatoes in the world, producing over 16% of all tomatoes.

  • The dollar is grinding marginally lower. Watch the greenback!

  • If you break your year down into months and then break those months down to weeks, the specter of performance isn't as daunting. Baby steps, Mon Frere, and one at a time.

  • Traders are focused on this XLNX meeting tomorrow.

  • When I discuss "cheap downside paper out to April," I'm referring to April puts that have a low implied volatility (relative to historical volatility). In other words, with vols "cheapening" (see VIX), the premium on options is inexpensive versus where they were.

  • Opportunities are made up easier than losses.

  • Dart-boards are made out of horsehair.

  • I simply don't see the bears out there and the cautious folks I speak are more cash than short. That smells of "hope" and while it may not be today's business, it's historically a red flag.

  • AIG continues to act heavy.

  • I'm not a "big" drinker, per se, but I've officially put myself on the wagon for a month (I started last week). I do this once every six months or so to clean out the pipes. I always feel fantastic when I'm done and then wonder why I drink in the first place--until, of course, I have a drink.

  • A good trader isn't measured by the amount of tickets stamped each day.

  • The number "four" is the only digit that has the same number of letters as its value.

  • The NYSE breath holds it's own.

  • We're gonna do a charity event tied to the Oscars--I'd tell you more but Casey will likely smack me if I spill the beans.

  • We got alotta snaps on the Minyanville fleeces yesterday. Support your local Minyan and wear 'em proud!

  • Earl Anthony eat your heart out!
position in s&p, aig, smh

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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