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Random Thoughts


I've heard of duck season and wabbit season...but preannouncment season?


  • I've got a 10-day chart of the S&P up and there's a defined trendline in place starting at last Monday's lows. Since then, we've had a steady series of higher lows and higher highs (bullish). I'm watching this like a hawk for signs of a lower high or lower low.

  • Add the retailers to the list of groups not acting up to snuff.

  • Mea Culpa--it was Bugs who spoke lovingly of George (not Woody).

  • Tony tells me that SMH 23.25 is a big level on the 60 minute chart--it's where they "need" to hold (if they're going to).

  • Why don't cannibals eat clowns? Because they taste funny!

  • The banks continue to hang tough but the brokers are beginning to show signs of stress. Watch GS.

  • I haven't heard hide nor hair out of Morgan's conference yet.

  • The oldest rocks collected on the Moon during the Apollo program were approximately 4.4 billion years old.

  • Patience will provide opportunities if you're lucid and don't press.

  • Someone just bought 10,000 more QQQ March 27 calls and this continues the trend of size upsides being bought. I think that's bearish (contrarian).

  • China is the largest producer of tomatoes in the world, producing over 16% of all tomatoes.

  • The dollar is grinding marginally lower. Watch the greenback!

  • If you break your year down into months and then break those months down to weeks, the specter of performance isn't as daunting. Baby steps, Mon Frere, and one at a time.

  • Traders are focused on this XLNX meeting tomorrow.

  • When I discuss "cheap downside paper out to April," I'm referring to April puts that have a low implied volatility (relative to historical volatility). In other words, with vols "cheapening" (see VIX), the premium on options is inexpensive versus where they were.

  • Opportunities are made up easier than losses.

  • Dart-boards are made out of horsehair.

  • I simply don't see the bears out there and the cautious folks I speak are more cash than short. That smells of "hope" and while it may not be today's business, it's historically a red flag.

  • AIG continues to act heavy.

  • I'm not a "big" drinker, per se, but I've officially put myself on the wagon for a month (I started last week). I do this once every six months or so to clean out the pipes. I always feel fantastic when I'm done and then wonder why I drink in the first place--until, of course, I have a drink.

  • A good trader isn't measured by the amount of tickets stamped each day.

  • The number "four" is the only digit that has the same number of letters as its value.

  • The NYSE breath holds it's own.

  • We're gonna do a charity event tied to the Oscars--I'd tell you more but Casey will likely smack me if I spill the beans.

  • We got alotta snaps on the Minyanville fleeces yesterday. Support your local Minyan and wear 'em proud!

  • Earl Anthony eat your heart out!
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position in s&p, aig, smh
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