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Wheel Barrel

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Good luck into thy closing bell!

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The wheel is turning and you can't slow down
You can't let go and you can't hold on
You can't go back and you can't stand still
If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will

(Grateful Dead)


The Monday muse continues to cruise as the bulls all dance and the bears all bruise. The seeds of the spirited sprint were planted when a relatively quiet weekend mixed with a spate of analyst upgrades. Now, after Boo's brethren bit the bitter bullet, we're a pebble's throw from triple lindy resistance (S&P 1125, NDX 1440-60, Dow 10,400). As they say on the left coast, Lights...camera...ACTION!

Hoofy, for his part, is making a strong case to recapture the starring role. The breadth is fantabulous, the "right" sectors are leading and the consensus is that the (necessary) correction is now in the rear view. Further, there is a building belief that the "hand" will do whatever it takes to keep the balls in the air--even if that means making certain balls disappear. I mean, if they can make entire components of the PPI vanish, they can surely do the same to the ursine profits.

Despite the Elmer fight, the Red Dye chorus isn't singing the same sanguine tune. In the last four sessions, fear (as measured by the VXO) has collapsed by an astonishing 27%. That's a pretty intense sentiment shift in such a short time, particularly given that we've now traded back to previous areas of contention. Could they trade higher? They can do anything they want, cookie, but the downside is always riskier when it's no longer discounted.

As for the here and now, tapes that are up (down) all day tend to end that way so weigh that against the looming and lurking resistance. For my part, I rung the register on some (very) small trading longs and nibbled a bit on defined risk downside puts as 1) they're on sale, 2) ceilings abound, 3) unknowns remain (including preannouncements and a bevy of Beeks) and 4) straight up seems a bit cute to me.

I'm gonna jump and juggle as I've got stacks of paperwork to chew through. I will tell you, as we're on this journey together, that the critters very much enjoyed their first taste of Hollywood. And from what I can tell, the feeling was mutual. Our vision of philanthropic education has only just begun, my friends, and I'm psyched that you're along for the ride. It's all about taking it one step at a time and enjoying the view along the way.

As always, I hope this finds you well.


R.P.
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