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Random Thoughts


Uncertainty is bad for the tape...

  • Morning Breadth? Skewed negative, but take that shake with a grain of salt (today will be a tale of two tapes).

  • Maybe the FOMC can try this at the next two-day fete?

  • Drillers? I don't even...well, as discussed yesterday, I nibbled anew on this group and like the way it's trading in early Tuesday dew (OSX +1.7%).

  • We saw a gorilla buying 10,000 Intel April 20 puts out of this morning's gate. We're also seeing strong call buying in the OSX names as LBO chatter abounds.

  • I was tempted to pare some of the metal holdings I added a few weeks back in the vein of trading around core holdings. The other option, obviously, is to sit tight and add into weakness. Neither is right, or wrong, it's simply a matter of preference. For what it's worth, and this may be a throwaway thought, I like the field position in gold better than that of silver at present.

  • "The final leg of negative seasonality in bonds, which we have been talking about for months and months and months, is upon us - cycle low date 4/24. No, I am sorry, but I can't say where it comes from. But as I mentioned here, the cycle high was last Friday - on the screws I might add." Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • We've been watching GE $35 and Citi $48 as big resistance levels. So you know (and if you care), GE was booted from the Merrill Lynch Focus One list mid-morning.

  • I nibbled back at some Pfizer as it gives back some of its meaty gains following its 30% sprint off the December lows. If the reverse dandruff holds true, $24.75 (the left shoulder) to $25 (the 200-day) should be a decent entry point. Not advice, obviously, just sharing my process with hopes that it adds to yours. And apologies if I'm a bit saucy of late, I've had a really stiff neck since I swallowed that Viagra and it got caught in my throat!

  • "A good chart showing SPX vs. the yield curve can be seen here. Fed halting rate hikes coincided with yield curve steepening in 2000 and that...voila...took liquidity out of the system at a point when everyone was committed to the long side. 2006 is a virtual replay of the macro dynamics in 2000, so there is ample evidence to believe we are on the precipice of a similar move." Scotto Reamer, weighing in on today's Buzz.

  • Some of my sales coverage is chatting up the fact that realized 10-day S&P vol is 6% (extremely quiet) in front of the FOMC and they've seen lotsa sellers on the floor. Minyans, of course, know this but I thought I would pass it along.

  • The US plans a military strike against Iran if the nation fails to prove that its nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes only, the Vatan daily newspaper said, citing German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Actionable? Perhaps not, but certainly worthy of a spot on ye radar.

  • One of the first lessons I learned in trading is that uncertainty is bad for the tape. So, if our central bank is admittedly confused by this continued conundrum, how can that possibly bode well for the bulls?

  • Does anyone else get the feeling that, sooner or later, Boom Boom's schvitz is gonna hit the fan?

  • Minyan Snaps to the Florida Gators on their ticket to the big dance. Southern Minyans correctly noted the inadvertent slight on my part.

  • Today promised to be a tale of two tapes with 2:15 being the fulcrum. For my part, I've gotta midtown meld at 11:30 and a lunch munch with Snoop Tony Dwyer before we again hike up the Hump.

  • "I don't care about losing all the money. It's losing all the stuff." --Marie Kimble Johnson, The Jerk.

  • In addition to what we've discussed, I've been cleaning up my sheets a bit. I've had stems and seeds of previous positions lingering for a long time and I wanna be a lean, mean fighting machine in the mold of Dewey Oxberger. I fully expect an uptick in volatility and when it arrives, I don't wanna be distracted by odds, ends or odd ends.

  • Keep an eye on that flag in the S&P (above 1300). It's coiling, for sure, now we just gotta figure out whether she'll rip or drip.

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.


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Positions in drillers, metal equities, INTC, PFE
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