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Applied Complexity Analysis - Intraday Flash



Note: the following analysis is formulated as an assimilation of Fibonacci, DeMark, Elliott Wave and other technical indicators. It is offered as education and not intended as advice in any way.

Thursday's price action (along with this AM's) offers little new data to our models; while we remain intermediate term bearish (owing to the trend-changing decline that we believe has taken place from March 7th), the short term pattern, along with some bullish divergences, are suggesting the probabilities for a multi-session bounce is meaningful.

Net/net, we will be patient and wait for a mean-reverting bounce toward higher Fibonacci resistance levels at SPX 1190-1208, DOW 10650-10800, and NDX 1500-1520 to become more confident in a bearish turn.

The very short term remains open to several competing (and viable) interpretations: either the lows registered on March 22nd were good lows from which a bounce will take place or else some more choppy, sub-dividing action lower could take prices to new lows over the next several sessions. At this juncture it remains difficult to tell so we will, while prices remain in this no-man's land, remain patient and uncommitted.

Recall that we are looking for a bounce to last a week plus and carry 200-300 basis points (depending on the index). Such a bounce is currently expected to be corrective; once it is complete we expect the dominant larger degree bear trend to reassert itself with vigor. Stay tuned.

Please note: We are now able to offer our proprietary complexity model analysis on both stocks and/or stock indices as a daily service to institutional investors and a select number of individual investors. There are several different services available; each are provided on a monthly subscription basis and cover all U.S. indices and all U.S. stocks. Please contact us for details and rates.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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