Applied Complexity Analysis - Intraday Flash
Note: the following analysis is formulated as an assimilation of Fibonacci, DeMark, Elliott Wave and other technical indicators. It is offered as education and not intended as advice in any way.
Thursday's price action (along with this AM's) offers little new data to our models; while we remain intermediate term bearish (owing to the trend-changing decline that we believe has taken place from March 7th), the short term pattern, along with some bullish divergences, are suggesting the probabilities for a multi-session bounce is meaningful.
Net/net, we will be patient and wait for a mean-reverting bounce toward higher Fibonacci resistance levels at SPX 1190-1208, DOW 10650-10800, and NDX 1500-1520 to become more confident in a bearish turn.
The very short term remains open to several competing (and viable) interpretations: either the lows registered on March 22nd were good lows from which a bounce will take place or else some more choppy, sub-dividing action lower could take prices to new lows over the next several sessions. At this juncture it remains difficult to tell so we will, while prices remain in this no-man's land, remain patient and uncommitted.
Recall that we are looking for a bounce to last a week plus and carry 200-300 basis points (depending on the index). Such a bounce is currently expected to be corrective; once it is complete we expect the dominant larger degree bear trend to reassert itself with vigor. Stay tuned.
Please note: We are now able to offer our proprietary complexity model analysis on both stocks and/or stock indices as a daily service to institutional investors and a select number of individual investors. There are several different services available; each are provided on a monthly subscription basis and cover all U.S. indices and all U.S. stocks. Please contact us for details and rates.
n on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the perf=
ormance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles a=
ppear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily t=
he views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing c=
ontained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advic=
e addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase,=
sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prosp=
ective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sal=
e of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader eith=
er individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional.=
Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities th=
at are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles =
are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund =
discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or dire=
ction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit busin=
ess of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management=
and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or ot=
her communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.<= /p>
Daily Recap Newsletter