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Random Thoughts


Just be yourself, sir--no matter what happens, they can't take that away from you.

  • "...If not, online and other media will gobble up television's share, they warn. "Unless the ad sales folks and distribution people get together in a harmonized conversation, it will be very challenging for advertisers to step up," Mr. Hanlon said. "While they rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic, advertisers may be building another boat."-An excerpt from "The Future of the 30-second spot" in the Sunday NYT Business section.

  • But there's no real estate bubble...

  • "The financing for SunGard is about 7.2 times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a high level for a technology company. The last big technology buyout, the $2 billion purchase of a unit of Electronic Data Systems Corp. in 2004, was financed at about five times EBITDA." - Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2005

  • Raaaaaaaaaaid! Vibes from Morgan sage Stephen Roach

  • In 1954, Bob Hawke was featured in the Guinness Book of Records for drinking 2.5 pints of beer in 12 seconds. Bob later became the Prime Minister of Australia

  • "NYSE new high data has retreated sharply on a daily basis and 10 day net figures have rolled over enough to produce a negative result for the first time since August 20, 2004. It's a truism that nobody makes money on the long side with new lows outnumbering new highs. So with the net new high data in negative territory we figure it makes sense to stay, as we've been writing for a few weeks, cautious." -- Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder.

  • VXN the vixen?

  • Behavioral therapy session.

  • How you posture and position is a function of your horizon and style. My "sense" is that equity rallies can be faded (read: sold) while metal and energy pressure can be picked at. But that's ME--you've gotta figure out you.

  • Ay Chihuahua!

  • "Generally, markets require distributive price action before declining meaningfully, and distribution tends to be an elongated process. Leadership on the downside is concentrated in Technology and Financials with the former being in a secular decline, and the risks emerging that the latter is establishing a secular top. With 44% of Financials within the S&P 1500 above their 200-day moving average, it is premature to suggest a long-term low for the group. However, the near-term breadth and volume data shows the group as oversold as it was near the lows in 2002." -- Lehman sage Jeff DeGraaf

  • Run, Forrest, Run!

  • More lore.

  • The banks are trying to find their way back to the breakdown point (BKX 98 and BKX 99) but the brokers continue to struggle as they attempt to hold uber-support at XBD 144.

  • The cyclicals continue to struggle under the February lows (CYC 753).

  • Cat burglar?

  • Feel good reading on a sunny Monday.

  • Congrats to Minyan Mark Bloudek for sitting atop the March Minyan Madness leader board. A (tough) traveling call on 'Nova and last second loss for Oklahoma State ended my tournament run and I'll soon be penning a nice check to The Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education. The winner of our brackets--and it's still up for grabs--will win their choice of a number of snazzy critter prizes while those who missed the mark will have the right--but not the obligation--to make a donation for the kids. It's all good, my friends, as we each do our part to give a little something back.

  • We flagged the blunt homies (in the face of good "news") and they continue to probe important support.

  • Breadth isn't giving Hoofy the wink yet as the internals are balanced at best.

  • "Unfortunately, all of this continues to reinforce our sense that a synchronized global slowdown is in the works, implying that the U.S economy will muddle forward at best. And, that view is being bolstered by not only the recent breakdown in the charts by the financials, but similar breakdowns by the CRB, Housing Index, China iShares (FXI), crude oil, copper et al....causing one old Wall Street wag to lament, "Every bull market has a copper top!" The quid pro quo is that the dollar has broken out to the upside and looks like it is going to challenge its 200-day moving average at DXY 85.62." -Jeff "As Good as it Gets" Saut of Raymond James.

  • The NDX has yet to breach the 200-day, breadth just flipped negative on the NYSE and the stronger dollar was the recipe for slippage in (pick an asset) last week. It is true that alotta folks are looking for (needing?) a bounce into quarter-end but that's a double edged sword. We all know what crowded situations can do (see January's "lay up" rally and the more recent "break out" above S&P 1218).

  • With the VXO pre-teen (still), it's quite clear that fear has yet to materialize. Please define your exposure (both ways) and never rationalize your risk. The last thing we wanna see is a Minyan getting spanked as a function of emotion.

  • The purpose of the journey is the journey itself. Sometimes we need to take detours, other times we can arrive in a straight line. The goal is to take the good with the bad and understand that we wouldn't have the former if we didn't experience the latter.

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