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Getting Closer


This has been one of those days. I have always said the biggest mistake I can make would be to try and make too many trading calls. This is one of those periods where I have that risk. I am bored, Toddo is out and the market is coming to the end of a consolidation period that began Monday. Whether I look at 10-minute, 30-minute or 60-minute charts, they all say the same thing -- this market is probably going back to the upper end of the range or lower end of the range outlined in Wednesday's column pretty soon. While that is not really too hard to imagine given that this is an event driven market, it is something to be aware of.

The nagging thought I can't get out of my mind is that Iraq isn't going to be the reason that the market moves out of the daily range I showed in Wednesday's piece. It could be Iraq and something else or just something else, but I find it hard to believe that the market is going to ignore all other news. The unfortunate reality of it is that anyone who has watched TV at all is now used to seeing clouds over Baghdad and videos from networks on the front. What we are not used to is good or bad news that could go along with that.

I bring this up because we have some important economic numbers next week and the confession period for earnings is upon us. I do not know whether the numbers will be good or bad, but I fully anticipate a lot of commentary about how the War has impacted spending. So many got bullish on the tape because it was so strong off the low based upon what looked to be a short war. How those longs that were event driven unwind in the midst of other news will be the key to whether the lower end of the range holds or the upper end of the range is pierced. Until one of those happens I am going to fight the inclination to be a trader since history has proven that ain't my gig.
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I am watching you Fokker!
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