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Random Thoughts

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When in doubt, I tend to trade a little "in between" to remove some of the attendant pressure.

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  • DUDE! Shake it off--Mercury Retrograde is in our rear-view and good things are afoot at the Circle K!

  • Hoofy continues to defend S&P 1300 with vim and vigor despite sloppy NYSE internals (9:5 negative). I'm spying the small flag pattern in the S&P (above 1300). IF (that's a big if) this can wave higher (after basing above support), it'll be a nice feather in Hoofy's cap.

  • The metals continue to shine bright as the XAU gallops 3% higher. Gold, for its part, is probing the (slight) downtrend line from the February highs and is 10 bones away from fresh acne.

  • Europe was noticeably laggy after recently notching fresh five year highs.

  • "The call for this week: In last Monday's missive we suggested there would likely be more information as to the stock market's direction gleaned from last week's action rather than from the previous week's witch witch expiration. What we learned is that so far there has not been much follow-through to the upside breakout of two weeks ago. Further, the S & P 500 "tagged" the upper Bollinger Band (BB) and retreated, causing the BB to roll over and turn down (read: a negative). As the insightful service "stockcharts.com" notes, "If the reverse analog pattern of time cycles is still working, we should be putting in a TOP right here. Time cycle Low 5 projects to late June. We remain cautious." Jeff "As Good as it Gets" Saut in his weekly missive.

  • How bout those Patriots?!? I had the Huskies winning it all but you gotta love George Mason's moxie! And welcome back, Minyan John Barranco, who's sitting pretty on top of the March Madness leaderboard. That UCONN pick might come back to haunt you if George Mason can't run the table.

  • Minyans. Mountains. Ranches. Bonfires. Human Capital. August 10-13. We'll be unleashing the venue in the next week or so and Minyans are gonna be more pumped than Hanz and Franz!

  • "The notional amount of outstanding derivatives across asset classes totals an astounding $236 trillion. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association tracks these figures, but dutifully notes: "The amounts do not, however, represent the risks associated with the activity; in order to determine risk, it is necessary to estimate net replacement cost, which ISDA does not collect." Pepe DePew on today's Buzz.

  • Citigroup, the most important stock in the universe, continues to meander under $48, which is now the most important level in the universe.

  • SunMicro is trying to turn $5 from a ceiling into a newfound floor. I'm there--as you know--but a battle wouldn't shock me.

  • OSX 203--multiple tops--has thus far capped the drillers. I still think energy is a long-term winner in a big way but it most certainly won't be a straight line moon shot.

  • Sometimes the truth hurts. Other times, it's pure bliss.

  • Professor Jason Goepfert shared some interesting thoughts on quarter-end over on today's Buzz.

  • Minyan Mark Vlahos notes that the liftage in Goldman and his brokerage brethren (since earnings) is on declining volume. That's typically not a bullish sign.

  • We saw an "oh by the way" buyer of 10,000 SunMicro April 5 calls (they traded for .30). Away from that, we saw a buyer of 20,000 XLF (financial spiders) September 32 puts (they traded at .80), a buyer of 1000 S&P April 1300 calls and 40,000 SMH.

  • Are you ready for some programs? Google will be added to the S&P on Friday's close, creating $5.4b to buy and attendant sell pressure in the S's. It's gonna be gamed all week--and cr.

  • My "sell stop" on Intel remains nestled below this level, although I've made partial sales (at my cost basis) as a function of my "eyes." While setting stops removes emotion, that doesn't mean they're absolute. When in doubt, I tend to trade a little "in between" to remove some of the attendant pressure.

  • I'm spying select silver stocks up nicely today as those triple tops morph into support.

  • Happy Birthday Minyan Dan Mayer (and thanks for the hospitality!).



R.P.
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position in sunw, metal equities, intc, drillers
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