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Random Thoughts

By

When in doubt, I tend to trade a little "in between" to remove some of the attendant pressure.

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  • DUDE! Shake it off--Mercury Retrograde is in our rear-view and good things are afoot at the Circle K!

  • Hoofy continues to defend S&P 1300 with vim and vigor despite sloppy NYSE internals (9:5 negative). I'm spying the small flag pattern in the S&P (above 1300). IF (that's a big if) this can wave higher (after basing above support), it'll be a nice feather in Hoofy's cap.

  • The metals continue to shine bright as the XAU gallops 3% higher. Gold, for its part, is probing the (slight) downtrend line from the February highs and is 10 bones away from fresh acne.

  • Europe was noticeably laggy after recently notching fresh five year highs.

  • "The call for this week: In last Monday's missive we suggested there would likely be more information as to the stock market's direction gleaned from last week's action rather than from the previous week's witch witch expiration. What we learned is that so far there has not been much follow-through to the upside breakout of two weeks ago. Further, the S & P 500 "tagged" the upper Bollinger Band (BB) and retreated, causing the BB to roll over and turn down (read: a negative). As the insightful service "stockcharts.com" notes, "If the reverse analog pattern of time cycles is still working, we should be putting in a TOP right here. Time cycle Low 5 projects to late June. We remain cautious." Jeff "As Good as it Gets" Saut in his weekly missive.

  • How bout those Patriots?!? I had the Huskies winning it all but you gotta love George Mason's moxie! And welcome back, Minyan John Barranco, who's sitting pretty on top of the March Madness leaderboard. That UCONN pick might come back to haunt you if George Mason can't run the table.

  • Minyans. Mountains. Ranches. Bonfires. Human Capital. August 10-13. We'll be unleashing the venue in the next week or so and Minyans are gonna be more pumped than Hanz and Franz!

  • "The notional amount of outstanding derivatives across asset classes totals an astounding $236 trillion. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association tracks these figures, but dutifully notes: "The amounts do not, however, represent the risks associated with the activity; in order to determine risk, it is necessary to estimate net replacement cost, which ISDA does not collect." Pepe DePew on today's Buzz.

  • Citigroup, the most important stock in the universe, continues to meander under $48, which is now the most important level in the universe.

  • SunMicro is trying to turn $5 from a ceiling into a newfound floor. I'm there--as you know--but a battle wouldn't shock me.

  • OSX 203--multiple tops--has thus far capped the drillers. I still think energy is a long-term winner in a big way but it most certainly won't be a straight line moon shot.

  • Sometimes the truth hurts. Other times, it's pure bliss.

  • Professor Jason Goepfert shared some interesting thoughts on quarter-end over on today's Buzz.

  • Minyan Mark Vlahos notes that the liftage in Goldman and his brokerage brethren (since earnings) is on declining volume. That's typically not a bullish sign.

  • We saw an "oh by the way" buyer of 10,000 SunMicro April 5 calls (they traded for .30). Away from that, we saw a buyer of 20,000 XLF (financial spiders) September 32 puts (they traded at .80), a buyer of 1000 S&P April 1300 calls and 40,000 SMH.

  • Are you ready for some programs? Google will be added to the S&P on Friday's close, creating $5.4b to buy and attendant sell pressure in the S's. It's gonna be gamed all week--and cr.

  • My "sell stop" on Intel remains nestled below this level, although I've made partial sales (at my cost basis) as a function of my "eyes." While setting stops removes emotion, that doesn't mean they're absolute. When in doubt, I tend to trade a little "in between" to remove some of the attendant pressure.

  • I'm spying select silver stocks up nicely today as those triple tops morph into support.

  • Happy Birthday Minyan Dan Mayer (and thanks for the hospitality!).



R.P.
position in sunw, metal equities, intc, drillers

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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