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Dead Set


From our family to yours -- may peace be with you!


I told Althea I was feeling lost
Lacking in some direction
Althea told me upon scrutiny
My back might need protection

(Grateful Dead)

Warren, er, Fokker just ran into the office screaming "Have you seen my baseball?!?" I haven't, kid, but I've seen enough tail chasing to last me a lifetime. Between yesterday and today, there have been been wicked head fakes both ways and it's frustrating pretty much everyone I speak with. More and more, I'm finding traders of all shapes and sizes sitting on their hands in an effort to heal the paper cuts.

We often talk about identifying advantageous risk/reward and regardless of which path the Minx chooses to travel, I don't sense that there's a discernable edge. I'm sure that when we look back 5% from now, it'll be obvious -- it always is -- but that's a defeatist attitude. We must make decisions consistent with what we know NOW and accept responsibility for our decisions later. There will be no looking back, my friends, so make sure you're comfortable with each step you take.

The chatter regarding tomorrow's S&P rebalance (SYMC/HI) is that there will be 3000 spoos to buy but, as you know, I've never been a big fan of gaming those types of events. Whenever you have a well-known situation in the market, odds are that it becomes too crowded to play. Still, I wanted to pass it along as it's sure to get loud during tomorrow's trading.

Apologies for the lack of insightful commentary today but there are times that beg doing less and these last few days are a textbook example. If you chased the blips and whacked the dips, you're whipped cream right now and a nonevent session has put you in a sour mood. If there's one thing I've tried to teach myself over the years, it's not to force trades. No matter how much you want it, squeezing water from a stone is bound to leave you high and dry.

I'll be taking the day off from Minyanville tomorrow and I leave our humble little town in the capable hands of Snoop Tone and B-Mac. I power down with a handful of cheapie (underneath) puts on my sheets and one leg in my metaphorical bear costume (25% conviction on the short side). I know what you're thinking -- if it's that edgeless, why am I hopping around in the fur? The answer is that, with my risk uber-defined and out to May, I can handle the truth it is, in fact, to the upside.

Another day, another 10,000 hair follicles and we continue to play the hand we're dealt. If there's one positive that came out of September 11, it's the perspective to appreciate what's important in life. It should never take something bad to make you realize that you have it good, so make sure that you make every day count. In 20 years, you won't remember if you made money on that last trade -- but you may very well remember time well spent.

Have a peaceful night.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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