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Dead Set


From our family to yours -- may peace be with you!


I told Althea I was feeling lost
Lacking in some direction
Althea told me upon scrutiny
My back might need protection

(Grateful Dead)

Warren, er, Fokker just ran into the office screaming "Have you seen my baseball?!?" I haven't, kid, but I've seen enough tail chasing to last me a lifetime. Between yesterday and today, there have been been wicked head fakes both ways and it's frustrating pretty much everyone I speak with. More and more, I'm finding traders of all shapes and sizes sitting on their hands in an effort to heal the paper cuts.

We often talk about identifying advantageous risk/reward and regardless of which path the Minx chooses to travel, I don't sense that there's a discernable edge. I'm sure that when we look back 5% from now, it'll be obvious -- it always is -- but that's a defeatist attitude. We must make decisions consistent with what we know NOW and accept responsibility for our decisions later. There will be no looking back, my friends, so make sure you're comfortable with each step you take.

The chatter regarding tomorrow's S&P rebalance (SYMC/HI) is that there will be 3000 spoos to buy but, as you know, I've never been a big fan of gaming those types of events. Whenever you have a well-known situation in the market, odds are that it becomes too crowded to play. Still, I wanted to pass it along as it's sure to get loud during tomorrow's trading.

Apologies for the lack of insightful commentary today but there are times that beg doing less and these last few days are a textbook example. If you chased the blips and whacked the dips, you're whipped cream right now and a nonevent session has put you in a sour mood. If there's one thing I've tried to teach myself over the years, it's not to force trades. No matter how much you want it, squeezing water from a stone is bound to leave you high and dry.

I'll be taking the day off from Minyanville tomorrow and I leave our humble little town in the capable hands of Snoop Tone and B-Mac. I power down with a handful of cheapie (underneath) puts on my sheets and one leg in my metaphorical bear costume (25% conviction on the short side). I know what you're thinking -- if it's that edgeless, why am I hopping around in the fur? The answer is that, with my risk uber-defined and out to May, I can handle the truth it is, in fact, to the upside.

Another day, another 10,000 hair follicles and we continue to play the hand we're dealt. If there's one positive that came out of September 11, it's the perspective to appreciate what's important in life. It should never take something bad to make you realize that you have it good, so make sure that you make every day count. In 20 years, you won't remember if you made money on that last trade -- but you may very well remember time well spent.

Have a peaceful night.
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