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Silent Night


If I'm gonna play today, I've gotta make a stand in here!


Hello darkness my old friend
I've come to talk with you again
Because a vision softly creeping
Left its seeds while I was sleeping

(Simon and Garfunkel)

Alright Minyans, it's getting close to fish or cut bait time. S&P 860 has waffled under the syrupy sell side pressure and S&P 853 is now the level du jour. Thus far, despite the red seas, the market has traded relatively orderly and traders far and near are scared schvitzless of a Snapper. Is that self-fulfilling or the ultimate bearish flag?

The early tea leaves are (obviously) pointing lower. Crude is higher, the dollar is lower, the financials and semis are sloppy, the breadth is 2:1 negative and the action is lethargic. With that said, please pay VERY close attention to these S&P levels --they're important. If the bulls are gonna make a stand, it's gonna be in here. If they can't hold these levels, it could get fugly.

For my part, I've made small, disciplined sales on some of my May puts, but I've left enough on to justify keeping that leg in the bear costume (25% conviction on the short side). A bounce attempt wouldn't shock me but I remain wary of the downside. Hey -- just one trader's (humble) opinion.

Gotta hop.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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