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Random Thoughts


past performance is no guarantee of future rallies!


  • The more times S&P 860 holds, the "bigger" level it becomes.

  • Bonds up, crude up, dollar down -- that's been the equity kibosh lately.

  • I continue to sleepwalk -- but only when there's chocolate in the house. The other morning, I woke up with M&M's all over my bed. I kid you not.

  • The fear of missing (performance anxiety) is as pronounced now as I've ever seen it. It's important to recognize that -- but equally important to remove it from your process.

  • I should charge my therapist for our sessions -- she spends half her time rolling on the floor in laughter.

  • And just like that, the breadth is 2:1 positive.

  • Does anybody doubt that our government spending habits will come back to haunt future generations?

  • If I was as thin as this tape, I could eat Minyanville cookies all day.

  • The most powerful man in the world? The cable guy. My home systems went down yesterday and Time Warner made it quite clear that its schedule is more important than mine.

  • I've got one leg in my bear costume and while I was eyeing S&P 855 to flatten and reassess (first test), I'm OK with the defined risk paper out to April/May. It gives me the "underneath" exposure I'm looking for and I'm protected on any intraday risk I put on. Again, that's my style...that doesn't mean it works for you.

  • I'm psyched to learn from Brian Reynolds--he's as good as it gets.

  • The situation with Russia, while likely a "non-event," illustrates just how fragile that region is. There remains a very thin margin for error.

  • Incorporating a workout into your daily routine helps manage the incredible stress we're all under.

  • I have little doubt as to the ultimate destination of the market, but the journey remains fraught with two-sided risk.

  • Am I still of the opinion that financials are a fundamental big-picture short? Yes, I am -- more so while they're rallying. That's not a trading call, mind you, just an observation.

  • Phoebe has developed a snoring habit.

  • Mind that gap, if and when, created from yesterday's lower opening.

  • If you're trading scared and chasing, pare back and do a bit less.

  • It's been long time since we had sushi for lunch and I've instructed young Fokker to tee it up.

  • Rumors of a peace plan sparked that latest lift.

  • Deja vu, Boo! But, as we said, spikes higher rarely reverse and go straight down. Bottoms are points...but tops are processes.

  • Do I believe that there was an "intervention" in the fx and/or equity markets a few weeks ago? Yes.

  • It's not necessary to play every move -- it's only important to win the moves you choose to play.

  • I've printed out my New Year's resolutions and will make a point to read them once a month.

  • Why did the Fokker/waitress episode remind me of the scene in Mask when Cher tries to hook up Rocky?

  • Am I too bearish in the big picture? Only time will tell. In the meantime, I'm humbly trying to find my way like everybody else.

  • If you haven't perused Main Street yet, go check out the shops!

  • When's the last time you took a bath? (no, I don't mean trading)

  • There is still more fear of missing than there is of losing. Is this time different? Isn't it always?

  • I used to love TV dinners.

  • The one constant at Minyanfest? Positive energy.

  • Minyanville poll: Who's this year's NBA most valuable player? Please send your responses to

  • VIX stochastics nearing a buy signal (potentially bearish)
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