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Helter Tops

By

Fare ye well into the bell!

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When you get to the bottom
You go back to the top of the slide
And you stop and you turn
And you go for a ride

(The Beatles)



The afternoon Minx continues to slink as Hoofy steps up with his heels on the brink. In the context of March Madness, green screens shouldn't shock us as it's been a nasty month for the trading bunch. Compression has already alleviated much of the outsized performance and allota cowboys are under the gun. With quarter-end ticking closer, tensions are high and nerves are frayed as hedge fund heads all look to get paid.

The landscape has been dutifuly mapped out for ye faithful. We're pretty oversold (stochastics) and some Snappage is expected to alleviate that condition. The question that I've been wrestling with is which scenario ultimately unfolds. Do we:

A) Fail at this first set of resistance points (NDX 1482/SOX 420/Google $181) as oversold can get more oversold, particularly if the structural elements start to unravel.

B) Lift a bit more to shake out the newbie cubs, alleviate some of the bungee and test S&P 1200/BKX 99 before really spilling.

C) Rally with B) in mind and then, as the structural situation improves, blow through resistance and hop back on the Hoofy express (ultimately finding our way to an overbought condition)

D) None of the above-enjoy the games and we'll figure it out on Monday!

The script is still being written but if I had to pick, I'd go with B) and closely monitor the breadth, leadership, macro (dollar) and signs of non-confirmation. Remember, Minyans, corrections tend to convert believers while reversals are characterized by steadfast belief (denial). We're seeing a bit of both at the moment as some bulls are getting shaked out while others are blindly buying the dips. You know where I stand big picture but, for purposes of the journey and finding the destination, we'll figure it out together.

In Minyanville news, we've been hard at work behind the scenes and you'll soon see the fruits of our labor. New scribes will join our family in early April, the all-star guitar auction will start soon thereafter and, of course, the Motherlode Minyanfest is set for this summer. I'm itching to announce the line-up and itinerary but my new boss-the same Fish who insists that I come to work tomorrow-is keeping tight reins on things. It's all good, I assure you, and it wouldn't be a Good Friday if I didn't take the time to thank you for your continued support. Dreams are only as powerful as those who believe in them and the critters are feeling the love!

Have a fantastic three day respite, enjoy the hoops and I'll see you on Monday!


R.P.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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