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Random Thoughts


Will traders step up in front of the weekend?


  • Uber-quick metric check? Technicals: Broken...but oversold. Structural: Bent...but not broken. Fundamentals: Decelerating...but not a disconnect. Psychology: Hopeful...but not as giddy as they were.

  • A sure fire way to stop biting your nails!

  • The most negative thing on my trading screen? Breadth. The most postive? Twisty stochastics. The most uncertain? When the smoke in the structural arena empties the crowded theater.

  • General Electric (GE) nudged up first quarter earnings guidance (a penny) due to a share sale of Genworth Financial (GNW). Is that the reason for the higher futures this morning? It certainly doesn't hurt but I don't believe it's the driver. With the tape as oversold as it is, a positive hint (or bad news that's not horrible) has a tendency to knee jerk some smirks.

  • I'll be keeping a close eye on the internals (huge), Citi (C) and the financials (tone of any lift back to BKX 99), Google and the semis (as they retest resistance at $181 and SOX 420), NDX 1482 (200-day), XBD 144 (this is a BIG level), the macro shim sham (dollar, crude, the metals, CRB, fixed income) and Intern Ari (we may have to test his sushi ordering skills!)

  • Speaking of pledge pins on the uniforms, if you know of any young bucks who would like to intern in the City of Critters this summer, please have them ping Neidermeyer.

  • Is the breadth climatic? Maybe. But for those who know what a Thai Bhat is, perspective is an invaluable lesson.

  • The pullback in crude has been nosty but that's to be expected (the sharpest pain typically comes in the throes a bull market). Energy STILL only represents 9% of the S&P (vs. 25% in 1980) and the "easiest" trade, in my mind, is the flipper that will occur when financial weightings dip under that of energy.

  • Black and Blue Boxes?

  • "As for equities, maybe there will be a bit of a bounce in the next couple weeks, but I think it will fail, as I believe the top is in, and therefore the path of least resistance is soon to be down. Likewise, I think there's a good chance that the speculative mania in housing has reached a crescendo, though it remains to be seen when we actually start to receive data points that confirm its demise." Professor Fleckenstein in his always insightful Fleck Rap.

  • Kevin and Collins went at it yesterday.

  • "A leader has the ability to create infectious enthusiasm" - Ted Turner

  • I was floating around my charts last night (read: please get a social life Toddo!) and noticed something in the longer-term S&P technicals. IF one was to make an assumption that there is a four-year reverse head and shoulders pattern in play (bullish), the recent pullback has brought us right back to the shoulder line.

  • Who am I rooting for in the Final Four? Utah or Michigan State in the Austin regional. The only way I have a shot at the brass ring is if they beat 'Nova in St. Louie and then take Louisville (a winner over Oklahoma State) in the final. I know it's a long shot but anything can happen in March Madness! Just ask Hoofy!

  • "We continue to use periods of sustained weakness as an opportunity to add to equity exposure, especially in those areas exposed to a meaingful and sustained pickup in Capital Expenditures. This includes Information Tech, and Industrials and Diversified Financials." Snoop Tony Dwyer

  • We have a mamaluke Saut-Shobin-Hot Rod-Reamer-Fish-Dwyer-Collins-Succofest brewing for early May. Humdinga!

  • Mental Energy!

  • Speaking of which, the mother-of-all mamaluke Minyans in the Mountains (part deux) is slated, set and in the books for Crested Butte, Colorado. We've gotta tie up a slew of details (hence my Friday John Thain tribute work day) before annoucing the dates, speakers and itinerary. But when I tell you that our line-up is top notch, I schvitz you not. Anyone who attended last year can attest to the value of this retreat. This year, we're reset the standard and set the tone for the Sundance of Finance!

  • Measuring stick!

  • Yes, the tape is oversold. It was also overbought-and stayed overbought-throughout the 2003 equity enema.

  • With that said, Boo's textbook set-up is a (oversold alleviating) rally back to resistance (S&P 1200/BKX 99) with non-participation and non-confirmation.

  • The first thing I thought when reading the FOMC policy statement was that Elmer took a Mississippi measured half step. That vibe has seems to be manifesting through both the mainstream and the markets.

  • Hmmm.....Durable goods come in weaker while inflation seems to be on everyone's lips. S-T-A....see you real soon. G-F-L...why? Because of Elmer! A-T-I-O-N

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