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Random Thoughts


Was last week's rally the counter-trend move or is today the counter-trend move?


  • Brian Reynolds is officially a Minyan! Make sure you check out his opening piece!

  • I apologized to Fokker's dad for tooling on his son all the time. He told me not to let up and "give the kid hell!" That's awesome! Hey Florence -- it's gimp time in Fokkerville!

  • I've been reducing exposure into this meltage by covering my "meatier" stuff and leaving a handful of the "cheapie underneaths" (puts). Rotating (and defining) risk is a constant endeavor when the market is this whippy.

  • The jury remains out as to whether this is the pause that refreshes or the roll over. I wouldn't be shocked to see one more thrust higher (when Baghdad falls?) but ultimately, I still don't trust that bottom.

  • Sammy keeps telling me that we're due for an Arizona spiritual refocusing trip -- and he's 1000% right.

  • A story in an Australian publication this weekend cited this quote from Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukoda: "There was an agreement between Japan and the U.S to take action co-operatively in foreign exchange, stocks and other markets if they faced crisis." I obviously don't know if this is true but it certainly wouldn't shock me. Conspiracy Theorists of the world unite!

  • Last week was one of the tougher ones we've seen in a while. You know what? It passed -- and it could have been much worse. My grandfather was right -- you've gotta think positive.

  • As a function of the 300 point/30 handle slip and the testage at S&P 860, I'm gonna remove one leg from my metaphorical bear costume (leaves one leg/25% conviction). It's likely a premature evacuation but I strive to make my imagery an extension of my risk profile and now it is -- for better or for worse.

  • Did expiration add to last week's buoyancy? I think so --but it still felt like a buying panic blow off phase.

  • Syracuse dug itself out of a 16 point hole but they can't afford to fall behind like that in the later rounds. Meanwhile, the Gonzaga game was awesome and, hey, Drew Nicholas from Maryland -- nice shot!

  • So you're aware, a LOT of traders are focused on S&P 850 as a monster inflection point.

  • Alright, I admit it. The sirens in NYC are really starting to get to me -- they never stop!

  • The last thing the market -- or the world -- needs is for Russia to step into this conflict.

  • I stayed home and watched Happy Gilmore on Friday. The price is wrong bitch!

  • Minyans come in all shapes and sizes.

  • I wish I could have seen either Jimi or Stevie Ray play live.

  • Charlotte-Anne was the best editor I've ever had -- and now she's a Minyan!

  • Despite today's meltage, there remains a ton of hope built into the market. I "think" we need to see widespread despair before "A" trading bottom and utter complacency before THE cycle turn (years away).

  • A bunch of Minyans have expressed an interest in sponsoring care packages to our troops and they're being sent out now. If you have a family member in the military based overseas, please forward their information to Thanks!

  • The stochastics have confirmed sell signals in the S&P, NDX, DJIA, BKX, XBD (brokers), SOX, trannies, BTK, CMR and CYC. While they surely have the capacity to "pretzel twist" (particularly if we get one more thrust up), these are clear (and unemotional) negatives for the market.

  • Yes, Minyans -- Fokker DID get the waitress' phone number. Wasabi!

  • Did all of Neil Glassman's customers get their Minyanville Fleeces yet?

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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