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Clarity Disparity

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Thursday's lows are NDX 1053 and S&P 860ish--that's next support!

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Red and white, blue suede shoes
I'm Uncle Sam, how do you do?
Gimme five, I'm still alive
Ain't no luck, I've learned to duck


(Grateful Dead)


It's been a long time since the red spread but the Monday morning madness has (thus far) stuffed Snapper's fade trade. I warned Boo that it's early, though, and while I'm sure he's itchin' to strut, I reminded our fair bear that the onus remains on him to take the ball back from Hoofy. Let's take a look.

A quizzical Minyan asked me why I slipped my arm out of the imagery this morning if I'm bearish. I explained to my lil' buddy that, with the S&P down 20 and the Dow down a deuce, it was the disciplined thing to do. Yes, I'm aware that Boo's been playing salmon to a much larger stream but there's a difference between making "s)">scales" and hiding in the hills. We've been "trading around" the short side and, as such, we pared "some" puts into the initial melt.

As I turn to face the tape with BOTH legs still in my bear costume, the White House is on the tape saying they have "credible evidence" that Russia helped Iraq. While I'm far from a political analyst and I'm unsure of the depth of this news, Russian involvement is a new element that we must factor into the psychological process -- particularly after a massive rally that squeezed out most shorts.

Looking at today's tea leaves, the macro tells (dollar, crude) and the stateside reads (financials, semis, internals, retailers) are mirror images to last week's giddy up. Once again, and as I told Boo, a pullback was intuitive and inevitable -- now we must figure out if it's the beginning of something more ominous or a dip that should be bought. Group therapy anyone?

While my bearish inclinations remain intact, I want to see how the Minx acts when she gets to S&P 860ish. While this pullback was ANYTHING but an "easy" trade, the road ahead now becomes more difficult to navigate. Take a deep breath, understand that it's very hard and attempt to map out a strategy. If you're bullish, this should be viewed as an opportunity. If you're bearish, remember how you felt during Friday's choke hold and manicure your risk appropriately. Either way, remove emotion and think positive -- we've only just begun.

I hope this finds you well.


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