Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Finish Ahead
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights...
Buzz Into the Bell - Todd Harrison - 3:49 PM
Alrightee then, as I prepare to sneak out a bit early (easy, folks, I've gotta get to the vet), my eyes are spying...well, pretty much the same tape we've been noodling all session.
To Television's Jeff Macke's point on "respect but don't defer," he's right. Hoofy's Heroes will offer that the Minx had every reason to pull back. That, if psychology was fragile, the Iran news would pile on sub-prime woes, recession fears and the Fed in a Box to produce a stain of pain.
That hasn't happened, of course, and while Boo will wryly opine that the greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist, he does so with the closest technical context resting above at S&P 1450. That's the set-up, we know the sub-plot and we'll figure it out together next week.
With that, I'm gonna tie up my pile of "to do's" and pick up an unhappy cat at the vet. Yeah, I know--cat's are "unmanly" but I'll offer that pets are special no matter what their make or model. And I'll further offer that I've never really trusted anyone who doesn't like animals. And that, of course, bodes well for a city of critters!
Enjoy the weekend, soak up the March Madness and I'll see YOU on the other side of my screen on Monday.
Fare ye well.
Waiting... Waiting - Jeff Macke - 2:56 PM
Notes from New Jersey while I wait for my ride to make its way through the rain-catalyzed traffic.
- "Respect but don't defer to the price action." From where I'm sitting you can hate everything about this Fed-Led rally but you simply have to respect the market over the last three days. We have every reason in the world to pull back and we haven't.
- Check out Dylan Ratigan's interview with Lindsay Campbell at WallStrip.com! "Chemistry," as the Bus would say.
My last, best, hope for NCAA glory starts this weekend when the Minnesota Gophers begin their march to the hockey title!
- I see nothing in today's post-earnings action to change my opinion that Palm (PALM) is where money goes to die, long or short.
Make it a safe and happy weekend, Minyans!
Expect Gold Bears To Take a Stand at $66 - Jess Thompson - 11:07 AM
This report explains the technicals of Gold going into today's session...
The recent $50+ collapse in Gold (which translated into a $5 move in the GLD (Gold ETF)) occurred in two legs.
The first leg was a break from the 68 handle to $65 on 2/27 (see the chart). That leg was followed by a near 60% correction and a two-day congestion on 2/28-3/1.
The second leg was comprised of a large overnight gap on 3/2 which originated at the 65.82 close (A on the chart) and a move to a "price too low" under the 63 handle.
My firm also happens to show weekly offers just above the 66 handle. We think bears will try to defend the 66 handle (B on the chart) and this is the most probable price level for this rally to either reverse or congest for a few days.
Intraday yesterday, there was a quick thrust up to a new high at 66.13 which was rejected just as quickly as the price broke to a new low for the day within one hour. That quirky price action may be a tell revealing the willingness of bears to try to sell Gold again in size and cap this rally.
Bottom Line: If you are bullish, this is a ripe area to reduce long exposure in Gold and Gold stocks; if you are bearish this is a spot where you should be stalking a short and where bears can be expected to sell in size again.
Performance Demand: As my firm measures it, we consider the current rally a fractional retracement of move from $68 to $63 and consider the bears (weekly offers or magenta dots at B) as still retaining control.
In order for bulls to disprove the current bearish case and to sustain a further move to new highs, the performance demand is for buyers to be able to transform this $66 handle from overhead resistance into support, therefore $66 becomes an inflection point -- critical for both bears and bulls.
More details on what to look for to validate strategic & tactical trade entries are available at our website.
position in GLD, gold stocks, gold
Crude and Natural Gas Update - Adam Michael - 10:44 AM
I have had several inquiries from other traders on what is behind the strength in crude lately. The simple answer...demand (especially Asian demand) remains strong. Technically, I see what looks like potential reverse dandruff on the crude chart. We are fast approaching resistance in the $63-65 area so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. My best guess is we need to do some more work grinding away at resistance. See the chart here.
As far as natural gas goes, it looks like we will head into spring with about 1.4–1.5 Tcf of gas in storage. I would not be surprised to see a bit of weakness in natural gas in short-term spot prices as we approach the shoulder months, but I expect the curve to remain strong through the summer and winter. Fundamentals remain very strong on natural gas as you can see by the steep contango for the rest of the year. See the chart here.
Two stocks I like as both crude and natural gas plays are BPZ Energy (BZP) and The Exploration Company (TXCO). Both have had nice pullbacks recently and look attractive here.
Positions in BZP and TXCO
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