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Random Thoughts


  • The true story behind Syracuse's early exit.

  • "The good news is that our 10-day up/down volume ratio on the S&P 1500 financial sector is as oversold as it had been during its low in the fall of 2002. The acceleration in many of the names has the potential to be short-term climactic, but this is an area of the market that appears to be undergoing a larger, more secular distribution process." -- Lehman sage Jeff DeGraaf.

  • She's lost her marbles!

  • With rates rising (and the dollar becoming relatively more attractive), the fact that liquidity driven asset classes are under pressure makes sense. For a little perspective, just think about what happened when the dollar lost a third of its value these last few years.

  • This is the nostiest breadth that I've seen in a while (NYSE 3:1 negative). Is a test of S&P 1160 in the cards?

  • Talk about a rock and a hard place! General Motors (GM) health plan is the single biggest purchaser of Viagra!

  • The line-up for Minyans in the Mountains is coming into focus and our "Sundance of Finance" is gonna knock the noodles out of you!

  • Yesterday's meltage hasn't changed my desire to see the characteristics of a "counter-trend" rally (back to resistance).

  • Brazil is down another percent.

  • With the "smoke" in the financial sector, would it really shock you if brokers were to fail below XBD 144?

  • Hoop it up!

  • NDX 1482 (200-day)--former support--now becomes initial resistance.

  • In the absence of water, people will drink the sand. The amount of sand in financial media right now is disheartening.

  • Crude is off 3.5% and folks are still wondering if that's equity positive. (Hint: Only if the Minx closes green!)

  • There's nothing worse than a clocky trader!

  • "Yesterday's action, post the Fed's interest rate decision, confirmed our thoughts that (a) we want to continue to reduce financials, (b) market internals are deteriorating and weigh heavily on the major indexes, (c) the rate on the 10-year will work to 5 1/4 - 5 1/2% , (d) seasonal factors remain negative as the spring months have, by and large, not been kind to the market since 2000 and (e) the S&P is still pushing beyond the outward boundaries of the duration of "normal" cyclical bull markets. Long story short - if you're not already cautious/nervous, we feel you should be." -- Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • The volatility sisters are lower today. While there are plenty of "new paradigm" believers for this fear proxy, I continue to think that it paints a complacent picture. Perhaps it'll take a "fail" from "very oversold levels" at "support" to wake people up to the fact that there are situations and scenarios that are outside of their assigned probability spectrum.

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