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Random Thoughts


  • The true story behind Syracuse's early exit.

  • "The good news is that our 10-day up/down volume ratio on the S&P 1500 financial sector is as oversold as it had been during its low in the fall of 2002. The acceleration in many of the names has the potential to be short-term climactic, but this is an area of the market that appears to be undergoing a larger, more secular distribution process." -- Lehman sage Jeff DeGraaf.

  • She's lost her marbles!

  • With rates rising (and the dollar becoming relatively more attractive), the fact that liquidity driven asset classes are under pressure makes sense. For a little perspective, just think about what happened when the dollar lost a third of its value these last few years.

  • This is the nostiest breadth that I've seen in a while (NYSE 3:1 negative). Is a test of S&P 1160 in the cards?

  • Talk about a rock and a hard place! General Motors (GM) health plan is the single biggest purchaser of Viagra!

  • The line-up for Minyans in the Mountains is coming into focus and our "Sundance of Finance" is gonna knock the noodles out of you!

  • Yesterday's meltage hasn't changed my desire to see the characteristics of a "counter-trend" rally (back to resistance).

  • Brazil is down another percent.

  • With the "smoke" in the financial sector, would it really shock you if brokers were to fail below XBD 144?

  • Hoop it up!

  • NDX 1482 (200-day)--former support--now becomes initial resistance.

  • In the absence of water, people will drink the sand. The amount of sand in financial media right now is disheartening.

  • Crude is off 3.5% and folks are still wondering if that's equity positive. (Hint: Only if the Minx closes green!)

  • There's nothing worse than a clocky trader!

  • "Yesterday's action, post the Fed's interest rate decision, confirmed our thoughts that (a) we want to continue to reduce financials, (b) market internals are deteriorating and weigh heavily on the major indexes, (c) the rate on the 10-year will work to 5 1/4 - 5 1/2% , (d) seasonal factors remain negative as the spring months have, by and large, not been kind to the market since 2000 and (e) the S&P is still pushing beyond the outward boundaries of the duration of "normal" cyclical bull markets. Long story short - if you're not already cautious/nervous, we feel you should be." -- Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • The volatility sisters are lower today. While there are plenty of "new paradigm" believers for this fear proxy, I continue to think that it paints a complacent picture. Perhaps it'll take a "fail" from "very oversold levels" at "support" to wake people up to the fact that there are situations and scenarios that are outside of their assigned probability spectrum.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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