Fare ye well!
Editor's Note: As some Minyans aren't Buzzin', we wanted to share the "play by play" on the heels of today's FOMC meeting. Thanks kindly for your continued Minyanship and we'll set you on the Hump!
Elmer leaves well enough alone (nudges rates up 25 bips and keeps language in tact).
They did note that "pressures on inflation have picked up recently"--what gave it away, crude?--and if there was a "half step" between taking and leaving ("measured"), this was likely it.
Mississippi Halfstep, Toodeloo...
• Note the bond smackage...
• While the Fed "doesn't monitor" stock prices, I think they're floating the inflation headline to 1) prepare the masses and 2) gauge their reaction.
• Watch Citi (C) please, it's my favorite post-FOMC tell.
• Breadth--still positive--is balancing a bit.
• How would you like to be the head trader at Fannie Mae (FNM) right now? Oofa...
• If Elmer coulda raised rates 37.5 bips, he prolly woulda.
• Breadth is balanced as bonds tick to the lows of the day (-28 ticks).
• I'm glad Hoofy exercised disicpline in front of the FOMC. And if we do chew to S&P 1200 (still possible), I'll be watching our tea leaves for signs of non-confirmation (and a potential entry point for Boo).
• Don't forget we get the other inflation eye tomorrow (CPI).
• Citigroup (C)...
The first move (down) is typically the false move although Hoofy will have to wrassle the baton away from the bitter bears. With Citi (C) at session lows (-1.55%), NYSE breadth now 3:2 negative, bonds getting suplexed (thank you David Fine) and leadership waning (SOX failed at resistance), it'll be a tall order for the Matador Crowd.
Still, stranger things have happened and the pressers and guessers best stay on their toes. You know both my bigger picture bent and near-term "eyes" so we'll see how the two intertwine. I will simply ask that if you're trading with emotion, that you take a step back and a deep breath.
Lest we forget...
Contra-hour is set to end with the bulls in search of a minxy mend. As Jason just noted on the Buzz, the TICK got pretty thick on the downside and that could lend a hand to the bovine stand. Again, you know my big picture bent (lower) but I'm not so sure it starts right here and right now.
Sometimes right, sometimes wrong but always honest.
Engine room, more steam!
NYSE breadth (9:5 negative) doesn't support the "bounce first" thought.
Google (GOOG) and the semis (SOX) both failed at initial resistance. Boo is looking for the same type of action when the S&P and BKX get to their respective levels.
Oh yeah, there goes the NDX 200-day.
Vols remain relatively unchanged. Surprising (and a little scary).
Are we there yet?
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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