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Random Thoughts


Please put limits on your orders if you're trading "around" Elmer!


  • "A real friend is one who walks in when the rest of the world walks out."- Walter Winchell

  • Cumulative money flow on the SPX peaked in early 2004, and the surge in the 4th quarter last year, and subsequent new high in the SPX failed to confirm, and continues to deteriorate. All of this of course is just a quantitative measure of what we already know: the rally was selective, there is more pervasive weakness, and the market is generally being supported by the strings attached to Energy and Materials (o.k. Utilities too)." --Lehman sage Jeff DeGraaf

  • Raaaaaaaaaaaid! Wise words from the Roach Motel.

  • More oil spoil for rude crude?

  • Billy Meehan finally got pictures back from his St. Paddy's night adventure!

  • Car trouble!

  • Minyanville Classics: 1989, By John Succo.

  • Where's Toby?

  • I offered yesterday that a water pistol to my head would force me to say "lower" although I wanted to allow for some Snappage to test the tea leaves. In the perfect ursine world, this lift would retest S&P 1200 and BKX 99 while offering further non-confirmation from the internal readings. Further, that would alleviate some the oversold condition while shaking out the newbie bear cubs.

  • Along those lines, Tuesday (pre-Elmer) breadth is "good not great" (3:2), the semis (which 'should' be leading today after everyone and their sister pushed them) opened near resistance and has since stalled, the BKX is having trouble finding footing (watch Citi (C)) and Google (GOOG) continues to struggle with the $181 level.

  • Prayers to those in Minnesota. Sad, sad stuff.

  • "Toddo, careful on this OVTI design win story. Note that it is a single design "win." The interpretation from my best tech sources is that a single "win" is no big deal -- and the fact that it's with an unnamed company suggests it's insignificant -- especially when you consider that each cell phone maker has about 50 to 100 different handsets. There's a lot of speculation the deal is with Nokia, but Adam Benjamin of Jefferies & Co. is cautioning his clients to be cautious. "Our channel checks indicate that Nokia currently uses three core suppliers for its 1.3MP sensors: STMicroelectronics, Micron, and Samsung. We believe that OmniVision's design win is not a direct win with Nokia, but rather a win through its original design manufacturer (ODM) that is likely manufacturing a low end, give away Nokia-branded camera phone." End of story!" -Herb Greenberg of MarketWatch on today's Buzz.

  • I didn't know that Phoebe and Zoë had passports!

  • Rats!

  • On the macro front, crude and the dollar are pink (slightly red) while the metals are mixed. The poker will be red hot after Elmer spews his clues so stay on your toes!

  • Are you ready for some football?

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