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Random Thoughts


Keep your risk tight and stops tighter, particularly after this recent lift has alleviated the oversold condition.


I return from a quick left coast turnaround with " Hollywood " Hoofy and "Backstage" Boo to find the bulls back in a saddle of sorts. Indeed, with China edging to all-time highs and the financials (BKX and XBD) back above their 200-day moving averages, the recent woes feel like "old news" to fresh and nimble eyes.

A few quick thoughts as we get ready to rumble:

  • FED days are notoriously a tale of two tapes, with 2:15 EST serving as the toggle. Keep your risk tight and stops tighter, particularly after this recent lift has alleviated the oversold condition.

  • We eyed Accredited Home (LEND) last week as a huge tell for the financials which, in turn, were a big tell for the tape. It filled the aforementioned gap (was that the easy trade?) and remains a sentiment proxy for the space.

  • Remember that bear costume that I slipped out of into the meat of the heat? When I first put it on, we eyed an S&P 1415 stop level, which is right about where we're at now.

  • I'm light and tight from an exposure standpoint and will share my eyes as they regain focus. Long-side faves remain SunMicro and Goldenstar and I've got some financial gamma (puts) against 'em for a balanced stance.

  • It's beyond me why people are still dying to get into first class--the nuts aren't even warm anymore!

  • There's a very positive research report floating around arguing for 10% upside in General Electric. The fact that the stock is (basically) flat on that may bespeak lingering or looming supply.

  • Hey Now! I barely have time to strap into my turret before I see that there's some nice insider buying in Goldenstar (GSS) (+6%).

  • Futures volume was down by almost 50% this last week versus earlier in the year levels. What's that they say about "lighter volume rallies?" Yep. Whack-a-Mole City .

  • JFK at 1:00 AM and a personal trainer at 6:30 AM? Engine room, more caffeine!

  • As the Orange toil in their quest for "66th," the rest of the world awaits the next leg of the Big Dance. I'm clearly unmotivated this year, as evidenced by my 77th ranking in the Minyan March Madness pool, but I also know alotta kids are gonna benefit from our annual pool. Remember, Minyans, those who don't win have the right-but not the obligation-to make a donation of their choice to the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education. On behalf of my grandfather, thank you ever so much!

  • Pre-FOMC tea leaves are nondescript as the S's meander in the zone. No pressing or guessing, Minyans, just patience and discipline. If the quick triggers stand in a circle shooting at each other, it'll make our lives much easier once the dust settles.

  • "Late yesterday, I mentioned I was selling into the 1410-1420 area (cash) in SPX by selling my trading positions in SPY and IVW acquired around SPX 1365. Part of my reasoning is the precipitous drop in the VXO. Note how it is dropping precipitously back to the breakout area of 12.50-13. Also note the Bollinger bands." Professor Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • Minyan Mailbag!

    Welcome back Toddo, hope you had a great trip,

    There are strong arguments for and against the Fed going to neutral. I think given the blowout PPI and markets on the mend, they stand pat.

    Whadya think?

    Minyan Dennis


    We've been discussing the "Fed in the Box" for quite some time and their insoluble problem now seems to be creeping into the collective mindset. While I don't think "Fedibility" (Fed credibility) is an issue for today, I continue to believe that the shift in psychology (when folks finally see through the incessant jaw-boning and spun vernacular) will be the sea change for the tape. Psychology, after all, is perhaps the most powerful metric.

    I'll say this-I don't envy Big Ben. Greenspan dug him into a deep hole and then postured himself opposite of the very problem he created. Very savvy political move but, for purposes of the financial fabric, it does little to help the rest of us who are holding the shovels.


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position in gss, sunw, financials
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