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Random Thoughts


"We play in pain"

  • The upside of my nosty chest cold? This hacking cough is the best workout my abs have had in months!

  • Random links from Aussie Professor Laurie McGuirk:
  • How can isolationism be justified in a post-bubble world if globalization was the rational for a new equity paradigm in the first place?

  • It looks like my trip to Germany will have to wait.

  • Maybe I'll go to Pittsburgh instead?

  • My takeaway from Boom Boom's speech last night?
    • He's every bit as political as Elmer.
    • He'll be a great post-rationalizer.
    • He's not (admitting that he's) worried about a weaker economy.
    • He was (publicly) more hawkish on the margin.
    • He's leaving the door open for more hikes after the all-but assured fifteenth straight nudge next week.
    • What the heck happened to the longstanding vibe that we're in the "late innings" of this cycle?

  • S&P 1300ish remains the bovine backstop for newbie longs.

  • We saw an odd-lotter step into SunMicro yesterday afternoon and scoop 50,000 October 4 calls to open.

  • Keep an eye on this sleeping giant as I sense some class action suits on the way.

  • Citi $48 and GE $35 remain viable short candidates with defined risk.

  • Oracle reported last night and the world's third largest software provider slipped after hours as sales of new databases trailed analyst estimates for a third straight quarter. Does this matter (will it now?), Larry would answer if he only knew how. For my money, I sense that this pebble may ripple through the software space but it's no longer one of the four horsemen of tech. In fact, I'm not sure any of the once staid technology chieftains still reign. It's a different market (with different leadership) and that will continue as investors re-allocate away from the over-owned sector.

  • Does anyone else get the sense that our best laid plans (be it energy or metals, tech or financials) will be put to the test this year?

  • Does CRB 320 matter? As a framework, yes. It's the multiyear trendline for the commodity proxy and may offer clues on the "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" dynamic.

  • Is that a big ol' reverse dandruff (bullish) formation in Pfizer?

  • White light to my brother Fish and his family.

  • When I first started at Mother Morgan, Ed Coury told me "this is the big leagues, kid, we play in pain." I took that message to heart and have carried it for sixteen years. I remind myself of that mantra today as a nasty bug sweeps through MVHQ and we put on a brave face in the vein of Minyanship.

  • Good luck today.

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