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Random Thoughts


Watch the breadth for clues in the muck!


  • Why can't I stop thinking of Coleman after the orange crop report?

  • "Should the SPX fail under 1184, a retest of critical support at 1163 is likely. Downside exposure should be concentrated in financials and technology, and while the crowd behavior makes energy shorts tempting, the tape has not yet confirmed positioning against the overall trends." --Lehman chartist Jeff DeGraaf

  • Dude! Some negative chatter on Dell (DELL) was making the rounds this morning.

  • Please don't shoot the messenger...but as we wade through the throes of a psychology bubble, I would rather you "see" everything and choose for yourself what really matters.

  • The XLF is sitting on a two-year uptrend (thanks Minyan Adam).

  • In addition to the dangerous dandruff that we flagged Friday, Citigroup (C) also broke the 200-day moving average today. The stock is relatively oversold (stochastics) but these are worthy inputs.

  • Snaps to Minyan Edward Aboufadel on sitting atop the March Minyan Madness leader board!

  • "Last week I mentioned that I thought we were within 5-15 days of a tradable low. I'm bumping up that time frame a bit. One reason...when I add up the a/d line over the past 10 days, I come up with a figure of -8400 (if we close where we are today). That's about as oversold as it gets. Looking over the past decade, there have been 23 other days with similarly oversold readings. 10 days later, the S&P was 4.0% higher on average (20/23 positive). 90 days later, the return was +13% with all 23 positive. That includes bear-market readings. The cliché is that oversold can get more oversold. Of course. Any signal at any time can fail. But if we try to put the odds in our favor, I'm hard pressed to see how being aggressively short at this point is a high-odds endeavor." Jason Goepfert on today's Buzz.

  • Keep an eye on those homies as they tickle support at HGX 480.

  • Scooter scatter!

  • Past support-S&P 1185 (1200), SOX 417-420, BKX 99, DJIA 10,600, NDX 1482-is newfound resistance.

  • Snapper isn't amused.

  • Will a stronger dollar (+1%) and weaker commodity prices (CRB -1%) be equity friendly (alleviating pressure) or equity negative (a sign of abating liquidity)?

  • So the stage was set-Fish and I hopped in my gas guzzlin' ride, picked up a slew of fresh fish and popped open a magnum of '85 Bricco (that we were saving for a special occasion) as the game was about to start. Suffice to say that the rest of the night wasn't as pleasant and I was a bitter critter for most of the weekend. Alas, perspective crept in as I remembered the difference between loss and loss. It's a game, I keep telling myself, and it's just a game.

  • Win one for the Zipper!

  • But the clips, chop blocks and clotheslines are alright?

  • As Snapper tries to make a comeback, please keep your eyes on the biotechs, nets and semis (beta) for "N's over S's" leadership. The internals don't support the ol' college try but we're oversold enough (on an uber-short term basis) to respect the effort.

  • "We think that any talk of a 50-bip "rate ratchet" will disappear at this week's FOMC (as will any negative Fed policy statement). Consistent with these thoughts, we think trading types should be getting ready to speculate on the long side of the market again. Recall our last "buy 'em" trading call was back on January 28th. We subsequently recommended selling those trading positions into the mid-February highs. Since then, we have been sitting in cash with the tactical (read: trading) side of the portfolio awaiting another inflection point. Maybe, just maybe, it will arrive this week." --Uber-Minyan Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James.

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