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Diaper Effect!


Be happy or pissed after the market closes--we need you to make educated decisions right now.


As I sit here and watch the action (on television and my screens), there are many thoughts racing through my mind. Like everyone else, I'm awed by the power that's ripping through Baghdad right now and can't imagine what it would be like to be there. It's overwhelming and I pray for the innocent victims who are in harms way. I am also more than a little concerned about potential backlash for our troops and on our soil--in more ways than one.

With regard to the stock market, there's little doubt in my mind that this is a panic. If we turned our screens upside down and the sell side pressure was as intense as the upside action, we'd be discussing the massive capitulation and scanning for defined risk calls. As such, I'm using this time to look out to April (and May) for "underneaths" while staying tight with my intraday exposure.

The wildcard remains investor psychology and the performance anxiety that's driving many decisions. With quarter end looming, many hands are being forced to play an uncomfortable hand. As we've said all week, that's potentially self-fulfilling in the near term but creates a whole new wave of supply when the music stops. When will it stop? I can't answer that question, my friends--I wish I could.

Deep breaths--lucidity is needed now more than ever. I'll be back.
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