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Holding the Wall




"I run my unit how I run my unit. You want to challenge me, roll the dice and take your chances. I eat breakfast 300 yards from 4000 bulls who are trained to kill me, so don't think for one second that you can come down here, flash some green, and make me nervous."

Col. Boo Jessup, overheard during a conversation with Sgt. Hoofy

It's a jammin' morning in Minyanville, friends, so this post is gonna have to be a quickie. The obvious driver behind this early greenage is the prospect that the Iraqi regime is (or will soon be) completely dissolved. While that's likely an inevitable event, we must also understand that this morning's expiry is playing a role in the price action. I will further offer that IF the tape is to sell off today, a spiky morning was a necessary element.

Overnight corporate news includes AMAT's CEO saying that decision making on I.T spending is "frozen," State Street Bank (STT) and INTU preannounced negatively, Bear upgraded ERTS, Merrill punted HON, Solly cut numbers and price target in MU and Deutsche Bank dumped EMC.

I currently have three appendages in my metaphorical bear costume (75% conviction on the short side) and I'm eyeing the final arm for a trade. While it's possible that this is the SHAM (stiff lift) we've long discussed, I would expect--at the very least--a corrective consolidation. Boo just opined that the day's high will be seen this morning but I told him to relax--it's a long day.

If you haven't read Tony's morning piece, please do so now--it's a great illustration of our current juncture. And THANK YOU, my friends, for the insane feedback on Charlotte-Anne and Brian. We've been very careful to find worthy Minyans and these two definitely pass the smell test. Keep your eyes peeled in the weeks ahead--I think you're gonna be pleasantly surprised by what you see.

Hit 'em hard.
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