By Todd Harrison Mar 21, 2003 8:20 am
Welcome aboard guys!
Good morning and welcome back to the swollen seas. After using the last couple of sessions to digest her previous meal (ursine fricassee), the Minx looks swimmingly higher on a fresh tale of optimism. The early chatter in the galley is that Saddam may have been in the first bombed building and, on that "news," traders are attempting to make Boo walk the plank. Will the seaman succeed in drowning the doubters or will the fade trade prove to be a whale of a sale? It promises to be a freaky Friday as we finish up the fleet week, Minyans, so let's dive right in and see what we've got.
If there are three phases to a trading move--denial, migration and panic--there's a distinct possibility we've entered the "blow off" (panic phase) of this particular juncture. It stands to reason--the initial surge from S&P 790 lacked respect from the trading community, the following move converted many bears into newfound bulls and now, anxiety has reached "duct tape" levels. The question on Captain Ahab's lips, at present, is how long can the mutiny on the bounty last?
With the current psychology focused solely on tick by tick developments in Iraq, the price action is whippy and relentless. Similar markets occurred during past "focus periods" such as Y2K, the electoral confusion and corporate malfeasance. Sure enough, when the event passed, investors returned to earth to find that the economy was still dreadful and stocks were still pricy. That may not "matter" as portfolio managers reach for exposure into quarter end but I will remind you that, in the past, running with the pack typically led to slaughter.
Triple Witch is upon us and once the March index paper expires on the opening, attention will shift to individual names and potential pins. Clearly, traders are "feeling it" these days and chances are that anxiety will continue for a bit. I will remind you, my friends, that emotional decisions typically come back to haunt you--so regardless of how you're postured or choose to play, take a deep breath before strapping on exposure.
In Minyanville news, we are proud to announce two new additions to our family. Charlotte-Anne Lucas has joined us as Editor-in-Chief and, for those of you who aren't familiar with her, she's a tremendous talent who will immediately add to the content, style and depth of Minyanville. Also, and this is cool, Brian Reynolds has come aboard as our resident bond dude and he'll immediate add fixed income and economic color to our existing core of competencies. Wasabi guys!
Brian will also be a visiting professor at the University of Minyanville and, take me at my word, he's only the beginning. In the weeks and months ahead, as the campus session starts, we'll be announcing a whole new slew of professors who will round out the educational community and vision of Minyanville. On behalf of the critters, I'd like to officially welcome our two new additions to the fold. I trust you'll find our warmth and spirit to your liking.
Good luck today.
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