A Stone's Throw
Hey Fokker--grab me a box of Depends when you go downstairs!
I have spoke with the tongue of angels
I have held the hand of the devil
It was warm in the night
I was cold as a stone
Alright Minyans, it's important to remember that this is a family site. I DID, in fact, (briefly) appear in a major motion picture that Casey did, in fact, direct a segment of. However, my screen name wasn't John Holmes and the leading actress wasn't a gal named Debbie from Dallas. Longtime Minyan and all around good guy Paul Taglia correctly identified Vanilla Sky as the flick pick and he wins a Minyanville Tee! Tags--you're it!
A muttering, stuttering Boo just vomited all over my desk (get a mop Fokker!) and I take that as the ultimate tell. I can't say I blame the young critter--I'm not sure I've ever seen a tape where its felt "sillier" to be a bear. I reminded him that if he's freaking about every single tick, he's likely too big. Despite the vacillations, these last few days have been relative nonevents (so far) and the goal is to use prices to your advantage. If you can't "short up" or "buy down," you should revisit your risk profile.
Looking at today's action, Hoofy's heroes are once again trying to push the Minx substantially through resistance at S&P 870. I've got a feeling that we're gonna look back at this juncture and say "Dude--we had this" but hindsight always provides clarity (and gumption). It's entirely more difficult to dynamically view the action, sentiment and momentum and make the same call. That, however, is the life we've chosen and the task at hand.
With all that's going on in the world, we must appreciate the potential for severe "gap risk" both ways. What that means, basically, is that we could walk into work tomorrow to find the futures limit up or limit down. That, in a nutshell, is why I'm defining my overnight risk via options and my session risk via stop levels. You never want to be one trade--or event--away from a new career.
I know these are trying times but, again, I urge you to maintain perspective. We trade to support a lifestyle and put food on our tables. Our soldiers are walking through the desert wondering if chemical or biological weapons are gonna land at their feet. Yes, what we're doing DOES matter--I'm not belittling that point--but it's not life or death. It's just trading, baby.
I've gotta hop. I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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