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Random Thoughts

By

Remember, hope isn't a viable investment strategy.

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  • I've gotta tell ya, the more I hear about how "nothing has changed," the more I sense that the "denial" shtick is good and thick.

  • One of the key "tells" discussed at the APEX live conference was how China and India are the new dogs that wag the stateside tail. The SENSEX, which was off a deuce overnight, gave investors the heads up again.

  • Here's a question for ya--if everyone knows a Secret, is it still a Secret?

  • And what would be the "Secret Answer" to the angst associated with our early afternoon network glitch?

  • We gave a cautious nod to the action in the metals yesterday and they're following through to Red Dye today (see silver -5%). Through the lens of "asset class deflation," we offered (this morning on the Buzz) that it could be a negative precursor for equities.

  • It's been a long week, eh? I'm hopping on a train after the bell to play super uncle in Baltimore for the weekend. That, my friends, is just what the doctor ordered.

  • Tapes that are weak all day tend to end that way. Could we see a Snapper into the close? This is the Minx, cookie--anything can happen (particularly during contra-hour). However, my tells--in addition to my gut--point to risk reduction into the weekend.

  • At the risk of completely mushing myself, SunMicro and Goldenstar are exhibiting noice relative strength today. That bodes well if this tape ever turns.

  • Yes, we're gonna have the Minyan March Madness tourney again (and I'll likely be alone in my Syracuse pick).

  • Another day, another 17% pop in the VXO. Gotta love gamma.

  • That, of course, is easy to say now. I've attended a heckuva lot of premium funerals over the last few years.

  • If I could lose weight and gain hair---rather than the other way around--I would be one svelte Minyan.

  • S&P 1400 and BKX 116 are fresh levels for those looking for a tighter technical context. Remember, sideways action under resistance--former support--is called churning, not basing.

  • I saw a buddy of mine who is widely considered to be one of the sharpest traders on the Street (he manages multiple billions). His take, for what it's worth, is that the market finds her way higher.

  • Wait'll Otis sees what's rolling out on MVTV. He's gonna shout!

  • That's why they call them the tells! The critter compass, which was pointing west by southwest, was true to form as the Minx slinks through Red Dye.

  • I still sense alotta hope out there. That psychology can add fuel to the upside fire but in a down tape, it's toxic. Remember, hope isn't a viable investment strategy.

  • I've misplaced my sense of humor today. If anybody finds it, please send it back to MVHQ!

  • The BKX and XBD (banks and brokers) stochastics are crossing on the bottom. They can stay that way for a while (as they did on the upside) but I wanted to toss it on your radar.

  • Note to self: Mid-week red-eyes are killer.

  • Banana peel alert! Keep your eye open as we edge to the close, Minyans. The tape could get sloppy if folks pare risk in front of the weekend.

  • Fare ye well into the weekend, my friends, and enjoy the down time. I'm quite confident you've earned it!


R.P.

Position in metals, financials
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