By Todd Harrison Mar 02, 2006 2:24 pm
Look at those yields!
- President Fish is, without question, is the brightest digital media mind I know. I've stacked my chips behind his vision, as you know, and read every word he scribes. Take advantage of his content, Minyans, as that's why we're here. And while I'm on the "group hug" vibe, mucho snaps on your one year anniversary in the 'Ville. You've been my best buddy since the first day of my freshman year at the 'Cuse and it's an honor to work with you.
- White Lightnin'! While the XAU remains 14%..13%...12% below last month's peak, please keep an eye on silver as it tickles a ten-handle and screams to multiyear highs (+5%).
- Bull-Bear debate? Boo would argue that bear markets aren't straight down. "That would be too easy. They're haphazard, tricky and fraught with all sorts of head-fakes." Hoofy will counter by pointing to the all-time (or near all-time) highs in a multitude of leadship sectors. "Price is the ultimate arbiter, bruddah." Both are correct, of course, but one of these critters is bound to be bitter.
- I am Mr. Roarke, your host. Welcome to Paradise Island! Officials from the Bahama Department of Agriculture were relieved to report that the suspicious flamingo deaths do not appear to be connected to the widely feared avian flu. Chicken Little, who has been running around screaming "Da pain, Da pain!" is breathing a sigh of relief.
- Snaps to Professor Bennet "Blue Steel" Sedacca for his spry eyes on the fixed income flux. Yields are ramping today, which shouldn't come as a shocker for those reading his daily vibes on the Buzz. This is particularly interesting timing as the piggies retest their recent acne (BKX 106) and determine if the vaunted "pop & drop" will procure. Remember Minyans, as go the financials, so goes the tape.
- To wit, Big Ben posted these vibes on the afternoon Buzz:
There are some things I wanna know as well (1:18) If the ten year note were to close here, the bear flag would be activated, and we would have effectively 'trapped' 3 years of buyers who become a source of supply. That is what happens when support becomes resistance. If, and this is a BIG if, we close like this, I think a quick trip to the 4.90 level or so is in the cards.
So tell me why the XBD isn't down? The BKX is down a little bit, but not as much as I would think with the long bond down a point and a half. I also wonder why stocks, in general, aren't reacting more - but it is early.
One thing is for sure, we are flattening away from that deep inversion and quickly. The 6 month to 30 year spread that I track is down to 6.5 basis points from 21 basis points just the other day. So our 6 month bills, 2 year notes and cushioned mortgages are hanging tough. I just think the close in bonds holds the clue to the next 6 weeks or so in bonds, which could ultimately set the stage for stocks. You just have to wonder if Snapper is hanging in the woods waiting to make a late entry, making this a 'false breakdown.' We'll see...
- Succo and I were reminiscing about our Mother Morgan days last night. The business is going through radical shifts, some of which we've touched on and some of which we will.
- Orange Minyans? You'd better believe it! Our "quick trip" to Syracuse just took a giant step forward as I'll be joining Dean Stith for a Sunday night chat n' chew.
- All I asked for were some sharks with friggin' laser beams!
- Dr. Jon Nigeria? The energy patch is flickering quicker as crude jumps 1.5% on Nigeria concerns.
- Keep an eye on GE $32.5 as another level of lore as we try to keep score.
- One of my oldest tricks of the trade is to watch my mainstay tells in the face of "counter-trend" currents (in the mainstay averages). As it stands, Citigroup continues to feel heavy to these old eyes.
- This is McSweet!
- Mini-Minyan Mailbag
"Toddo, Just wondering if there is a specific break of IBM that you are looking for? What is your take as I am just getting into charting? Thanks kindly, Minyan Frank"
I've been dancing with the "long SunMicro-long IBM puts" pair for a while, as Minyans know, as I wanted to use the nosty looking dandruff as a catalyst for a short-term hedge vs. a long-term holding. It's been a bit of a dance--I was stopped out and reinitiated the put side--but I'm still there.
As far as the "level," I'll borrow Clay, er, Pepe's rule of thumb that trendlines are best drawn with crayons rather than fine-point ink. One could argue that $80.50-$81 was the right shoulder but Big Blue has been pretty, pretty, pretty sticky (think Larry David) around the $80 level.
The longer it slithers sideways, the higher the odds that March expiration will pin it to the strike. Which would suck, for those playing this puppy through the $80 puts. Alas, the first thing we learn in Derivatives 101 is that the opposite of gamma is theta, or time decay. Nothing comes for free. Hope this helps--and if you would like to read more on optionology, Professor Succo has the best tutorial on the Street.
- It's another nutty day in the fray, Minyans, and I sincerely hope this column finds you well, mindful and disciplined. Work to live--don't live to work--and let's head into the weekend with some jingle in our jeans.
Positions in SUNW, IBM, financials
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