Peace to the men and women in our armed forces--our prayers are with you!
Tooth for tooth, eye for an eye
Sell your soul just to buy, buy, buy
Beggin' a dollar, stealin' a dime
Come on can't you see that I'm stranded
Caught in the crossfire
(Stevie Ray Vaughn)
Today's session is another tough battle but I asked the critters to please keep it in perspective. As we sit here in the (relative) safety of our offices and stress over our financial decisions, there are a whole helluva lot of kids sitting in the desert preparing to go to war. Am I pussyfooting my way through our current juncture? No shot, kiddo--just as there's loss and loss, there's stress...and then there's stress. Keep it real please.
It's hard to be anything but a raving bull right now but THAT, my friend, is the exact reason I'm so reticent. With the exception of a select few, everybody I speak to is dribbling on themselves they're so excited. I'm acutely conscious of the price action but my mantra, until proven otherwise, is to sell hope and buy despair. The screens may be green but if form holds to function, the tickets gotta be red.
While the news abroad is clearly THE focus, we must continue to honor thy process of metric assimilation. In that vein, Goldman, Lehman and Morgan all report earnings tomorrow morning and that will likely color the financials (which, in turn, should impact the tape). Further, Elmer will swing by (if he can find his way) and release the initial jobless claims (exp. 415k) and leading indicators (exp.-.4%).
The macro indicators continue to be the horse to the equity cart and we'll need to keep those on our radar. Oil has, for all intents and purposes, experienced a mini-crash as it's lost over 25% of it's value in a little over a week. The dollar has also experienced a fast move and that's approaching it's trendline near Euro/Dollar 1.05. Bottom line? The moves are vicious, emotions are high and the market has air pockets in it (both ways). Keep that right hand up.
I'm gonna power down tonight with those same three appendages in my metaphorical bear costume (75% conviction on the short side). It's clearly getting lonlier in the Red Dye Junction and, as a zagger, I like that. I will remind you, however, that timing is the critical element here.
In the immortal words of Robert Hunter, "If I knew the way, I would take you home." Unfortunately, any which way these days seems littered with landmines and potholes. The world is a very fragile place and tensions are high. Do yourself a solid and be good to YOU. See some old friends, hang with the fam, eat some ice cream--balance is elusive but it holds the key to our smiles. And at the end of the day, he who smiles is truly profitable.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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