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Windward Spirits

By

Fare ye well into the bell!

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Worlds are turning and we're just hanging on
Facing our fear and standing out there alone
A yearning, and it's real to me
There must be someone who's feeling for me


(Steve Winwood)


The action is intense as players jockey for position and it looks like this one is gonna go down to the wire. No, I'm not talking about the awesome action on the tube--although NCAA's are kickin'--I'm referring to the trigger happy traders and the ever-evolving news. He's caught...he's not....it's Bin...it's not...it matters...it doesn't....DUDE! Whatever happened to the days when trading was actually about the stocks!

As it stands, there's something afoot in the foothills of Afghanistan although it's not clear exactly what it is. It "sounds" like a high ranking Al-Qaeda official is surrounded and there's a smoke out in motion. There's no doubt that it's a positive from a human standpoint but I'm not sure what it means from a trading point of view. Positive on the margin, I suppose, but not something that will overwhelm our other metrics.

Tomorrow is triple witch and that means that all other (known) catalysts have the day off (index options expire in the morning and individual names will be afternoon business). The undercurrents have been in motion all week (including yesterday's buy program) but if history is any guide, the actual day of expiry will be somewhat anti-climactic. That doesn't mean we can let our guard down, mind you, but it may offer an opportunity to regroup and assess risk.

We've now migrated sideways for the better part of the week and as we're under resistance (S&P 1125), it must be considered a churn (rather than a base). Still, and the bad breadth notwithstanding, there is an underlying bid to the all-important financials. Until they can get to those names (Citigroup (C:NYSE)), Boo will be hard pressed to spill and thrill.

Stay on your toes as we edge to the bell 'cause there's gonna be alotta jockeying by players who are "gaming" the geopolitical landscape. For my part, I made some purchases and "tried it" when the news broke (and the gaps filled) but it didn't pan out and I've thus flattened most of that exposure. There are trades for the day, trades for a catalyst and trades for a thesis and you should always remember why you assumed risk. Once you start rationalizing the position to yourself, it's likely a sign that it's time to go.

Good luck into the closing bell, my friends, and as always, may peace be with you.

R.P.
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