Gap to Gap
I hope I don't confuse anyone with this one - but here goes: Yesterday the SPM gapped higher, never looked back, and closed up more than 1%. With today's lower open and continuation, I was curious to see how the rest of the day might play out.
Question: One day ago the SP futures open higher, never trade negative, and close up more than 1% AND today the SP futures open lower and by 11:00 am EST, the low for the day is down more than .5% from the prior day's close.
Results: There were 50 occurrences and the close was lower in 86% of them. However, 30% of the occurrences did manage to trade positive on the day. I've listed the last five occurrences below. The columns represent the SP high, low, and close in % from the prior day's close. The most recent occurrence was 3/15/04.
What the heck does all this mean? Even if Snapper shows up today, history suggests that the SP is likely to close lower.
Date Day high low close
10/16/2002 Wed -0.93 -3.06 -2.31
11/22/2002 Fri 0.21 -0.86 -0.72
02/19/2003 Wed -0.21 -1.60 -0.56
03/24/2003 Mon -1.67 -3.66 -3.33
03/15/2004 Mon -0.22 -1.46 -1.16
Avg -0.13 -2.17 -0.94
AvgPos 0.60 NaN 0.54
AvgNeg -0.45 -2.17 -1.18
PctPos 30.00 0.00 14.00
PctNeg 68.00 100.00 86.00
50 Occurrences (Last 5 Shown)
As always, past performance is no indication of future results.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter